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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: w0z who wrote (67949)	3/20/2015 11:42:39 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95616

There was also some insider buying in ANAD back in November but the stock has gained quite a bit since then. finance.yahoo.com I of course bought it at a much higher level than it trades today instead of where insiders were buying. LOL, RtS

To: w0z who wrote (67949)	3/21/2015 12:25:38 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Just glancing at ANAD's Q4 results, the following are my thoughts. Valuation - they're at about 1.0x 2014 sales, not too cheap or too expensive. Gross margins were only about 16% in Q4? That's awful for a semiconductor company. Why so low? They do expect GB to improve in Q1, but only to about 20%. From my limited experience, the very uninteresting semiconductor companies have gross margins around 40%, the high tech semi companies have GMs around 50%-65%. 16% gross margin is indicative of extremely commoditized product. Why are ANAD's GMs so low? Their costs are about $9m per quarter. So....to break even on 20% gross margins, they need quarterly sales of $45m. Sales in Q4 were $21m, and they're going lower in Q1 due to seasonality. How long do you think it will be until ANAD makes a penny EPS? They have to more than double their sales while not adding a single new employee to the salary line. Sorry, they look awful. I don't know the story, so maybe I'm missing something, but with $9m in quarterly costs, 20% gross margins and a current quarterly run rate of $21m, I don't see why you make BUY case.

To: w0z who wrote (67949)	3/21/2015 12:29:42 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95616

Would now be worth $11 Million if I'd held it! (BIG sigh) I owned 1,000 shares of Apple back in '03 or '04. On a Thursday, Apple was $59.50, and the one day expiration Friday $60 call was selling for $1.00. So I sold 10 covered call contracts, representing the right to buy my 1,000 shares of Apple at $60, and hoped Apple went down on Friday so the calls would expire worthless and I could pocket the $1,000 premium. Instead Apple went up on Friday, my calls got exercised and I sold my 1,000 share of Apple for $60, and never bought them back. I'm not exactly sure, but I'll bet 1,000 share of '03 Apple would be worth a cool million today. Oh well! I've pretty much stopped selling covered calls, I don't think any of my covered call trades have ever worked out well for me.