Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3949)	12/18/1997 3:11:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

A blast from the past - an oldie but a goodie: Bagley's View -- Some quotes from the last Lam conference call with particular relevance to current issues: "Concern has also been raised with regard to currency difficulties in Asia. Since most of the output in wafer fabs are sold in dollars, the ability to invest in added capacity should be be largely unimpaired. My concern is more focused on the reduction in dollar based discretionary spending on the part of consumers in Asia. Growth in consumer spending in Asia has been one of the drivers for increased semiconductor consumption by PCs and consumer electronic devices. I would me more comfortable if DRAM prices and currencies in Asia would strengthen. Even with these difficulties. I am positive about the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industries. These difficulties call for prudence and not panic. ... Our product mix is heavily biased toward .25 micron systems. When I look at what the DRAM producers are doing (Roger and I just got back from a tour of major customers in Japan) it is pretty clear that everyone is focused on shrinking the die size on 16 mb production and moving as quickly concurrently to 64 mb production because the bit price continues to come down.The only way you are going to get more revenue is that you either have to build another fab and process more wafers or you have to get more bits off of each wafer you are currently producing, which is what everyone is attempting to do. So in essence they are pulling the techology forward. If you have two companies sitting side by side and one is on .25 micron, 16 mb and one is on .35 micron, 16 mb, the .35 guy is non-competitive. So if you two facilities running within your company, one on .35 and one on .25, in the current market -- at the current pricing -- the .35 -- I don't believe can make money compared to the .25 micron. So if your capacity ages at .35 or .50 micron and you are competing with people who are on .25 micron and maybe, in the very near future, as small as .20, they are going to get alot more die per wafer, regardless of whether they are building 64 or 16 mbs, and they are going to be able to price you out of profitability. So if all of your capacity that is on larger feature size -- I don't think it is cost effective and it is, in essence, obsoleted for memory capacity. They may look around for something else to do with it, but it is not going to serve the memory market at all. That's my view."

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3949)	12/18/1997 3:25:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Brian: Thanks for the Book to Bill. More info: North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Shipments And Bookings Continue Upward Trend For Ninth Straight Month November 1997 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.99 MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., December 18, 1997 -- The North American semiconductor equipment industry posted a book-to-bill ratio of 0.99 for November 1997, it was reported by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). This is the ninth-straight month orders and shipments have advanced. A book-to-bill of 0.99 means $99 in orders were received for each $100 worth of products shipped. Three-month average shipments increased in November 1997 to $1.9 billion. The figure is nine percent above the October 1997 level and 80 percent above the November 1996. Three-month average bookings increased in November 1997 to $1.9 billion. The bookings figure increased five percent above the October 1997 level and is 98 percent above the November 1996 level. "This is the ninth straight month shipments and bookings have increased," said Dick Greene, principal analyst for SEMI. "In November, the orders were the highest they have been for 1997. The reason the ratio is lower is because the shipments grew at a faster rate than did the orders. This is why it is important to analyze the "numbers behind the numbers." Even with the current environment of DRAM pricing pressures and the financial concerns in the Pacific Rim, the industry continues to grow at a healthy level." The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average shipments. Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. Month Shipments Bookings Book-to-Bill June 97 1,374.6 1,474.3 1.07 July 97 1,475.8 1,658.7 1.12 August 97 1,535.7 1,688.1 1.10 September 97 (final) 1,672.1 1,773.8 1.06 October 97 (revised) 1,757.6 1,797.4 1.02 November 97 (prelim.) 1,913.7 1,886.5 0.99 The data contained in this release was compiled by the independent public accounting firm of Arthur Andersen LLP, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. Arthur Andersen LLP can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data. The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks shipments and orders for equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not shipments and orders of the chips themselves. Based in Mountain View, Calif., SEMI is an international trade association serving more than 2,100 companies participating in the $65 billion semiconductor and flat panel display equipment and materials markets. SEMI maintains offices in Austin, Beijing, Boston, Brussels, Hsinchu, Moscow, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. Visit SEMI OnLine at www.semi.org. More detail is available to Executive Market Data Service subscribers including value of shipments and orders and data by equipment type. Find more information on how you can subscribe to this report.