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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (55113)	3/28/2015 2:05:13 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Respond to of 78702

Paul, sorry I goofed on the 5:2 split. I think multiples are dangerous when revenues have a short term inflection; I have to agree with the market on this one. This is a data I pulled from a Facebook app feed which am assuming is a representative fraction of the total DAUs: appmtr.com FY 2014 FY 2013 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Bubble Witch 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 Candy Crush 38 42 50 58 58 55 45 Farm Heroes 16 15 19 15 9 9 7 Pet Rescue 8 10 10 12 12 10 6 Papa Pear Saga 10 12 16 19 15 15 6 Total 73 80 97 107 97 92 67 What concerns me more is the 20F focuses on YoY comparisons which would be very misleading here. Looks like there may be some sort of activist movement going on to do something more productive with that pile of cash. If so there may be speculative upside here. But I see little margin of safety. As a practical matter I tend to avoid until the shorts have had their fun.