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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (3959)	12/18/1997 4:58:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 10921

Jay: Yes, thanks for sharing your persepctive. There is evidence to support your view: SpeedFam International (NASDAQ:SFAM) shares decline Reuters, Thursday, December 18, 1997 at 12:48 NEW YORK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - SpeedFam International Inc shares fell as much as 14 percent Thursday as lingering concern about Asian economies overshadowed second-quarter results in-line with analysts' expectations. The stock stood off 1-1/2 at 23-1/2 in late-morning trading on more than 1.3 million shares. Earlier, the shares touched a low of 21-1/2. Late Wednesday the company said it earned $0.49 a share in its fiscal second quarter, in-line with the $0.49 a share analysts surveyed by First Call had expected. Still, investor fear that Asian economic woes would affect the entire chip-equipment maker industry proved stronger than optimism over Arizona-based SpeedFam's quarterly results. Some analysts say the industry may buckle amid overproduction possibly a year or so from now. "It's not the results only, its what's going to happen," said Allan Roness, an analyst at JW Charles Securities. "Everyone is blaming it on Asia but it's not quite the story -- there's more to it than than. In general there's overproduction in certain segments." Roness said his company is no longer a holder of SpeedFam shares, and has shifted money into other "more boring" segments, including air freight. Other analysts said they still liked SpeedFam although the company's industry was full of uncertainty. "The earnings came in at Street estimates," said John Pitzer, an analyst at Needham & Co. "There's just a general cloud hanging over the industry." SpeedFam makes complex equipment for manufacturing semiconductors.

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (3959)	12/18/1997 5:17:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Jay - Do you know where I could find numbers showing percent capacity utilization for DRAM's? The reason that I ask is that our whole debate turns on this. I think that capacity utilization was much less than 80% in early '96 (I actually read this somewhere - the Economist?), and I suspect it is above 90% now. (I define capacity as the total number of Mb that could be turned out with the DRAM equipment currently installed around the world, even if that equipment is turned off, or - important - if it is producing line sizes substantially larger than its best possible feature size, then that plant should count as being substantially under capacity, even if it is turning out chips full speed.) If you can show that the capacity utilization has not climbed appreciably since early '96, then I will agree with you. We (semi equip stock holders) are screwed. Clark