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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (13600)	12/18/1997 6:34:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 70976

Brian, I hope you don't mind, but I posted your very informative chart on the Cymer thread. For some reason it doesn't work when posted elsewhere. Your point is well taken. Semiconductor cycles last anywhere from two to five years. 1997 represented a "recovery year" from the drop off in 1996. The SOX recovery cycle has never lasted one year and then tanked. It is possible the SOX got slightly ahead of itself, but the sell-off is quite overdone and according to several mutual fund managers who follow the industry, 1998 will be a continuation of the recovery of 1997. The SOX recovery cycle has NEVER lasted one year and then fell apart. If so, this would be the first year ever (Asia or no).