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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BDR who wrote (8604)	12/18/1997 8:16:00 PM
From: Rick Slemmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

Dale: Ya found me! (Dale and I go 'way back on the VVUS thread, where both of us were playing the short side last spring. Great fun!) I usually close out a TA-induced position when serious support is evident. It doesn't always work; about 70% of the time I get out too early, as I have this irrational fear of takeover bids from left field materializing unexpectedly and ruining an otherwise wonderful short. Short Strategy 1 was hatched on the VVUS play: "OK, I've been short this thing for five weeks and it's dropped from 30 to 18. Time to bail." Short Strategy 2 is more recent: "Hmmm. December rally; January Effect; stock closing off its lows and I'm up XX%... Time to bail." Long Strategy 1 is very basic: "I'm up 20%? Time to bail." As you can see, my exit strategies lack the calculated timing and finesse of my initial positioning. I try not to get greedy, and I check my open positions every night. As a very basic rule, I settle for 20% gain or 8% loss in any one trade. If a stock is moving my way, I push the 8% loss in the same direction so that a sharp reversal and shakeout leaves me deeper in the money. It's worked OK so far. RS