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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mattyice who wrote (55194)	4/17/2015 12:15:05 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78708

Agree w/ you on small caps. I have a few I own and looking to add a bit more but still less than 1% positions in the portfolio. You might want to look at Security National Financial Corp. (SNFCA). They have a stated BV of $7.55/share and I believe some hidden real estate assets that are undervalued. My avg cost is $5.07/share w/ GTC buy for a 30% add at/below $5.01/share. The company also pays an annual 5% stock dividend. My target price is around $8.00/share. Last quarter, the company sold some of their cemetery assets that they used to finance the construction of a town home development which they plan to rent to generate a new revenue stream. The business is based in Utah so no foreign exposure. Sterling Construction Co. Inc. (STRL) is one I am still buying at/below $4.00/share. I sold some high priced shares at $4.50/share but since then the company was the low bidder on two new contracts totaling $71mln. That's a 9% increase to their $764mln backlog. I sold out of all of my GV for a 30% gain and am waiting to put those proceeds into STRL. Armanino Foods of Distinction Inc. (AMNF) continues to post good sales (QoQ was +11%) but the dividend is now only 3.3% so I expect them to increase it soon. My last buy was 12/2011 and I should have added to this growing small cap. My avg cost is $0.70/share and this one is getting close to being in my top 10. So yes, there is still value in several of the small caps I follow but one has to be careful because one small screw up by management can sink the ship. GV had to post a huge loss in Q4 because of over runs by their sub-contractors. Just plain bad management! Management for AMNF is excellent, STRL has a new CEO w/ very good experience and SNFCA seems to have worked their way through their mortgage division issues by settling w/ their large bank customers (no claim of fault but they did re-package loans that were of low quality). So, the key for successful small caps is low leverage/debt, sustained double digit growth and good management. FWIW, I am still stepping aside from many of the foreign emerging stocks except for special situations like WOPEY. Your basket of Canadian banks and biotech should be ok. I have closed out several of my small biotechs and have stayed w/ the larger Pharma w/ recent buys in ABBV. It's very difficult to find any of the Pharma stocks at value buys now. Some of my best gainers in the Drug stocks were bought in 2008/2009 for MRK and 2010 for PFE. My only other special situation is SDRL w/ some buys at $18 & more at $9. I got my avg cost down to $13.40/share and only last year my avg cost was $35.00/share. I continue to find value following the activist investor ideas but not chasing any of them now, only watching a few from the sidelines. EKS

To: Mattyice who wrote (55194)	4/18/2015 5:57:41 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78708

Hi Mattyice, just curious if you applied your strategy to NFLX.

To: Mattyice who wrote (55194)	4/18/2015 8:01:58 PM
From: Shane M	1 Recommendation Recommended By Mattyice Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78708

re: "There just isn't much to say right now. I'm finding hardly anything to put money into despite growing a cash position (suggestions welcomed)" I have a high cash level currently, but have been buying quite a bit in the energy sector over the past 2-3 months. I'm sure you're watching the sector, but if you feel like oil price recovers in due time you'll probably find some attractive values there. What I've added: Energy: HP, NOV, OXY, MUR, OIS, HES Refiners: VLO, WNR Overall I'm approaching energy/oil from a standpoint of diversity, so I'm just spreading money across things that look attractive quantitatively as this is more of reversion to the mean investment than anything. I haven't added a major yet, but CVX has been tempting. Also bought some small exposure to Europe with VGK. This is based purely on relatively high valuations in US, and w/ strong dollar I feel like I'm getting more for my money in the process also. Pilgrim's Pride PPC also just seemed awfully cheap to me so I bought a small position. It's all about the price of chicken (aside from the bird flu issues). (I saw CF mentioned in a post earlier. I haven't added to my position recently, but I'm a longer term holder, but it's a pretty simple story that I buy into: a low cost producer, with good location in US ag markets, with access to cheap inputs (natural gas), and is expanding to take share away from higher cost imports. At least that's the case currently. If NG prices rise then ... not good. Main concern seems to be if too much capacity comes online domestically it could crush margins for everybody, because prices are currently set by the higher cost importers that they're taking share from. Some concerns around farmer buying power also. Overall risk reward seems favorable given valuation.)

To: Mattyice who wrote (55194)	4/22/2015 10:13:53 AM
From: Mattyice	3 Recommendations Recommended By Jurgis Bekepuris MCsweet Spekulatius Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78708

This kind of sums up my sentiment via abnormalreturns.com (great resource) "The risk of paying too high a price for good-quality stocks – while a real one – is not the chief hazard confronting the average buyer of securities. Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions. The purchasers view the current good earnings as equivalent to “earning power” and assume that prosperity is synonymous with safety." (Benjamin Graham)