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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Smith who wrote (4244)	12/18/1997 10:51:00 PM
From: Mark[ox5]	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Steve, I agree with both your points.. the first about standing back and not trying to catch the bottom and then 2nd about toy companies. To the first point, like I said I'm holding back some $$$ for the "near bottom" on RADAF , whenever that may appear. And yes, on that thread are a few people who have actually typed "I love RADAF". Scary. Also, undying optimism on any thread is a red flag. Id like to point out to you a stock you mentioned a few posts back, GECM. I am very bullish on this stock for next year, however be careful in any short term dealings... wait at least until earnings. They did an aquisition about a month ago and noted they will have a charge related to the aquisition. One of my best trades so far has been GECM, went from 11.00 to 14.75 (when I sold) in approx 3 weeks. I didnt get greedy and I sold; and it did go up to mid 15s I believe, but thats ok. Now its back to around 11.00 and with an acqusition that is going to make earnings even better next year (even without internal growth accounted for).. but I will wait until after next earnings to jump in. Last, to your 2nd point.. Radica is not Cabbage Patch kids. Im not going to foresee the future and say Radica will have the best products or hottest products in a year. However, they are not a 1 product co. and actually it kind of amazes me how successful they are without really even "kids" toys. Im not a fisherman, but that fishing game to me at least seems geared more to adults than kids. They have new products coming out (including a sub game which I think kids would love) and more things in the pipeline. Also, remember.. the stock has had amazing performance without a single analyst following it and I believe 1 mutual fund owning it. I think that is quite amazing. Yes, SI and IBD have decent sized followings, but its only tapping the edge of Radica's potential for discovery. Thats why I enjoy following stocks with a handful of mutual funds owning it.. lots of potential. (i.e. GECM has gone from 5 to 10 in the past 1.5 months) <Institutions move these stocks, not you or I> Once again, Im not saying RADAF is not going to go down maybe all the way to 10, who knows. All Im saying is dont paint all "toys" in one brush. I think anyone would be pretty content with owning Nintendo stock 10 years ago (its still around last I checked) =) I read Rainer's post about stocks that have metoeritic rises, many times having meteoric falls (in relation to Radica). While that may be true.. I find it hard to believe that a co. with 1.36 in earnings and growing in the area of 50% will fall back to $1-$5 as I read his post possibly implying. Call me crazy like that ;) Not that RADICA is Microsoft or Cisco, but if he is waiting for Microsoft fall back to where it started he may be waiting a few years. Im bullish for the intermediate term on RADAF, the short term who knows. Ok gentleman, we need shorts... Asia dying..slowly..then quickly..then slowly..then quickly. I just want a nice little Christmas rally to get into cash over the next 3 weeks.. is that asking so much?? Santa? Do you read this board? =) Mark (sorry this is so long!)

To: Steve Smith who wrote (4244)	12/18/1997 11:11:00 PM
From: Jay Tice	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

"I went and read the RADAF thread. I think those guys are in love with RADAF as it slowly sinks. Good fundamentals...but how long will that last?" Well Steve, it's hard not to love a stock that has given you a 700% return in 8 months. As for fundamentals, I would suggest that you obtain a copy of the conference call to get a better idea of where this company is headed. There is a lot more to this story then Bass Fishin' IMO. They are sitting on 30 mil in cash with no long term debt, so I don't believe that bankruptcy is of real concern right now. It is true that many small toy companys are shooting stars or one-hit-wonders. I remember when Coleco was hot in the home videogame market untill a company named Nintendo came along. I guess the risks are high but the potential rewards are huge. I've been following this company since May and all of my research tells me that this is one to go for the big kill on. Long on RADAF! Wish me luck. Thanks, Jay

To: Steve Smith who wrote (4244)	12/18/1997 11:21:00 PM
From: freelyhovering	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Steve, Chris, Mark, and others--I appreciate your comments on RADAF. It is having a mini crises and it will be a test of its character to see how it responds.(A little anthropomorphism here). Looking at the TC2000 indicators gives a mixed but fairly bad picture short term. The 5 day TSV gave the lowest reading today for the whole year, even lower then the crash day in Oct. MoneyStream, however, is still quite strong and BOP had only one negative day in 7+ months=today. Of course one swallow doesn't make a summer, as the saying goes, but with the Asian Markets acting up again tonight the bird is not too pretty. Intermediate and long term still look wonderful for RADAF. The 30 day channel seems to be flattening out and we may see a wide horizontal pattern for a couple of months like RADAF had this last March and April. The trading range could be from 12-19. So traders like you guys (and sometimes me) can make some money. Steve, I see 12 +/- a bit as the consolidation place and I can't decide whether to put in a stop loss at 14 1/2 or just average down at this point. BTW, the 5 day ema crossed below the 13 day today but both are fairly comfortably above the 40 day, so the general bullish trend is in tact IMHO. I hope my numbers and reflections added to the picture. I would be interested in your comments on my speculations. Myron