Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Naggrachi who wrote (622)	12/19/1997 11:40:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2068

Screw-up in estimating claims reserves << their costs are not fixed to the same level as the big three automakers, no? >> Correct, but their revenues are very fixed and calculable. That's insurance business. I think they must have screwed up really big, because you should be able to buy data history from external sources on statistics about large pools of health insured people, if you don't have it youself. You adjust these numbers for the specifics of your situation, and I would suspect that results should be pretty much in line. In any case you may err on the conservative side and provide too much for claims. Obviuosly they wnated to show nice growth rates. OXHP were "relatively" accurate with estimating and keeping their enrollment: only 30'000 (off my head, could be wrong) had to be sorted out as of 09/97. That's about 1.5% of enrollment. But they underestimated costs by about $250m (50+ as of 09/97 and 200m for the 18 months as of 12/97). That's about 6% or so percent of medical expenses over this time. Thomas