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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (55274)	4/30/2015 6:09:38 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78714

I am looking to add tomorrow. GOV -- I sold them all a month ago, and buying them back looks appealing. But I think I enjoy not owning them for awhile longer, if you know what i mean. BRX -- these are all fine retail reits (the pick of the litter) -- BRX DDR IRC ADC. IRC has the lowest PE, but expected growth is lowest. Apartments -- MAA and CPT issued earnings. I just converted a lot ot MAA reg IRA into a roth IRA, because the price seems reasonable. I love these apt stocks. Too bad AEC was sold. ESV -- driller had good earnings and the stock is up to $27 from $20. I don't own it yet and maybe I missed out. I don't think energy is out of trouble yet. Time to control jealousy. I also like STAG, DRE, DOC and they are kind of related. STAG is industrial, DRE is indust and med office, DOC is med office. DRE is a fresh add for me. I will prob add more tomorrow.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (55274)	5/5/2015 10:39:30 AM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78714

GOV. I added a small amount today. $19.75. 8.7% is fair based on no earnings growth expected. i'll sell if it pops a dollar.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (55274)	5/6/2015 1:32:19 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78714

DFS - I have Discover card. I use it infrequently: mainly when they have 5% cash back categories. Other than that, they are not very attractive in terms of cash back bonuses. Can't use cards internationally. Perhaps Amex should buy them...

To: Paul Senior who wrote (55274)	6/9/2015 11:40:32 AM
From: Graham Osborn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78714

Paul - I know you've brought up TARO a few times. I had a careful looksee and think I'm going to pass. For one thing 10x EBITDA isn't all that cheap, particularly if the growth the past few years has been purely from price hikes without volume. Generic sales for a given product by definition decline over time unless you can grow volume because new players will continuously enter the market. So the future growth trajectory needn't have any relationship to the past. Sure they are undervalued relative to the specialty generics but that is because the specialty generics are in a bubble driven by my favorite shorts, ACT and VRX. Not much downside protection when the giants start violating their debt covenants and stop acquiring. The valuation is far less conservative now than it was a few years back: Year 2014 2013 2012 2011 Price/ Cash 31.09 19.09 9.29 11.69 Debt/ Equity 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.05 P/B 6.4 5.1 3.6 3.1 P/ E 18.1 17.0 46.7 9.6 EV/ FCF 18.8 18.0 26.2 9.3 EV/ EBITDA 14.2 12.4 28.3 7.3 EV/ Rev 8.33 6.42 13.80 3.22 GN 65.01 51.73 18.28 34.49 Price 147.42 101.3 49.64 39.4 Rev Growth 13.2% 362.3% -71.3% NA Which gets me to upside. I get that this is a "strike and hike" play where we're assuming ACT or VRX will buy them for the derm assets then raise the price. That's a decent upside. But I'm amazed at the number of longs on SA that are positively bearish on that happening. It's been trying to happen for years and Sun won't allow it. With this guy Shanghvi controlling both companies, I've come to regard Taro as essentially a Sun sub with some outstanding float. Sun controls cash, buybacks, disclosure. I do believe they are doing well by the business but that doesn't mean their interests are aligned with Taro shareholders. I don't see the minority activists having the voting rights to disrupt the balance. So IMO you're really buying a piece of Sun, which is a basket case. The best I can say is maybe over the next 10 years Sun will sell Taro to raise cash and the shareholders will get a distribution. Maybe.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (55274)	6/18/2015 5:09:09 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78714

Adding to asset manager MN (Manning and Napier) position. Declining assets-under-management. I don't see the reason why it might not be reversible. Dividend while waiting for better times - .64 annualized on a $10.51 stock now. bloomberg.com