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Biotech / Medical : IPIC -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott Pratho who wrote (943)	12/19/1997 4:46:00 PM
From: NeuroInvestment	Respond to of 1359

Since there is some European and Japanese experience (and published reports) regarding citicoline in traumatic brain injury, that is where some significant off-label usage could develop, though IPIC is wary of getting into complex TBI trials. There is also a body of European publications on its use in dementia, but I am not convinced that the crossover is as likely there. While some CYA for TIAs is possible, the Phase IIIs indicate little effect for citicoline in mild strokes, whereas it looks quite useful in moderate to severe. Thus, thinking of TIAs as the mildest of strokes, I am not sure a convincing case can be made. Having said all that, my most recent financial model for IPIC chose rather conservative revenue projections for citicoline...taking into consideration marketing costs, royalty to Grupo Ferrer, and a base population of 300,000 moderate to severe strokes per year in the US, I projected 1999 market penetration at 20%, yielding around $108million to IPIC.I would expect that to double in 2000. This is nearly a worst-case scenario, others have projected a 300-500 million market potential, and if one obtains good acceptance for stroke and modest off-label usage, that range is attainable. I will be rereviewing IPIC sometime in the next 4-5 months as the Redux smoke clears, and will redo that financial model at that point. NeuroInvestment