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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: derek cao who wrote (13657)	12/19/1997 12:27:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re:I deeply believe that the global demand for semi would decrease if SEA got out of control. Derek, Do you mean if the currency debacle continues and Korea cannot afford any new plants? What exactly do you mean by out of control? Currently, SEA accounts for ~22% of chip consumption. Assuming demand remains relatively constant, I believe that chipmakers in the EU or US would willingly oblige and take the capacity that Korea cannot/will not build. Also, IMHO to remain competitive, SEA cannot stand at a 22% consumption rate. Part of the reason we are seeing this current leg of our expansion is because of the benefits of technology on productivity. I believe that as Japan, SEA et al deregulate, they have no choice but to implement additional technolgy to maintain a competitive edge against our leaner and meaner U.S. corporations. Remember the late 80's/early 90's? There was so much fat and inefficiency in our cos. that we all thought we'd be working for the Japanese. Our companies got religion(Read:technology) and now Japan must shape its economy in our example as well. It is not a question of if only a matter of when IMO. Please note that it was painful for us(layoffs) and will be painful for them. The one difference between our two countries is that our markets made the painful decision; in Japan they work from a higher level. The govt. needs to step in and do the dirty work. Not a popular thing, esp. when you have a "job-for-life" mentality. I am not optimistic that the asian leaders have the wherewithal to implement the needed changes in the forseeable future. Regards, Brian