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To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (25790)12/19/1997 1:04:00 PM
From: Lee  Respond to of 176387
 
Hank, Good afternoon, Re: <<I believe we are in a deflationary period and the Fed will not admit it>> Do you mean deflationary or disinflationary? I think Alan has expressed concern over asset inflation (stock prices), if you remember the famous "irrational exuberance" statement made last December. Also, some industries have been able to raise prices, notably the airline industry for one. Furthermore, if this economy was truly deflationary, then we would have consistently lower and lower prices which we haven't seen. Given that the PPI was down 11 of the 12 months this year, reflecting very little pricing pressures at the producer level, the CPI hasn't exactly followed and shows yr/yr inlation rate of 1.8%. Producers have little pricing power, even given increased costs in some areas, which means some of them are using technology to offset the increasing cost pressures; else, how could they post higher earnings on increased revenues?

Regards,

Lee



To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (25790)12/20/1997 1:00:00 AM
From: B Hewson  Respond to of 176387
 
Hank, re "all assets will deflate" -- what do you think will happen to the price of oil and what will that do to the drillers?
Barbara