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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (68711)5/31/2015 1:15:14 PM
From: Return to Sender2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Donald Wennerstrom
seminole

  Respond to of 95757
 
From Briefing.com: Major indices all finished lower in May's final trading session, although they did manage to post gains on the month. Economic news was light today, aside from first quarter GDP data, which pointed to a contraction of 0.7%, down from the 0.2% increase observed in the preliminary reading. One would assume given the weakness shown by the GDP numbers that traders would view the data in a positive light, potentially leading to a further delay in rate hikes - at least that has been the case lately - buy the bad economic data.

Turning to the tech sector, the superstar today was the Philadelphia Sox Index (SOXX +0.3%), which was lead by M&A news, with Altera (ALTR 48.85, +1.85, +4%) and Intel (INTC 34.46, +0.45, +1.3%) near a deal, and Avago Tech (AVGO 148.07, +5.69, +4%) agreeing to purchase Broadcom (BRCM 56.85, +0.60, +1.1%). In all the market noise, one things for certain, M&A is heating up.

In the S&P 500 information technology sector (-0.75%) lagged the broader market today, even with the strength of of the Semiconductors, which is not surprising considering the underperformance of its larger constituents such as Google (GOOG 532.11, -7.67, -1.4%), Western Digital (WDC 97.36, -1.87, -1.9%), Qualcomm (QCOM 69.68, -0.92, -1.3%), and Visa (V 68.68, -0.88, -1.3%).

Notable news items from sector components included the following:

Altera (ALTR 48.85, +1.85, +4%): Financial Times reported that Intel (INTC 34.46, +0.45, +1.3%) is nearing a $15 billion deal for Altera

Google (GOOG 532.11, -7.67, -1.4%): Pulse.io announced on its website that it has been acquired by Google

Apple (AAPL 130.32, -1.46, -1.1%): Digitimes reports that global smartphone shipments are expected to rise 13.6% in 2015. Related names: Blackberry (BBRY 9.80, -0.23, -2.3%), Samsung (SSNLF), Nokia (NOK 7.29, -0.09, -1.2%), and Microsoft (MSFT 46.89, -0.56, -1.2%)
Elsewhere in the technology space:

Equinix
(EQIX 268.07, -1.12, -0.4%): The Boards of Equinix and TelecityGroup announced that they have reached agreement on the terms of a recommended cash and share offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of TelecityGroup.

Digital Ally (DGLY 14.89, -0.21, -1.4%): Announced it has received follow-on orders from Superior Ambulance for roughly 175 additional DVM-250Plus Event Recorders. The order, which will be shipped in the current quarter, will allow Superior to complete the outfitting of its over 400 ambulances and paratransit vehicles with Digital Ally DVM-250Plus Event Recorders and access to the Company's FleetVU Manager cloud-based asset tracking and telematics software storage and management systems.

Tyler Tech (TYL 121.48, -3.64, -2.9%): Acquired mobile hand-held solutions provider Brazos Technology Corporation. The financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

Rosetta Stone (RST 7.62, +1.19, +18.5%): Confirmed its Board of Directors has received an expression of interest from RDG Capital Fund Management
Analyst Action:

Avago Tech
(AVGO 148.07, +5.69, +4%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies... price target raised to $170 from $145 at Canaccord Genuity; Buy... price target raised to $175 from $140 at Craig Hallum; Hold... price target raised to $180 from $145 at Brean Capital; Buy

MagnaChip Semi (MX 7.17, +0.78, +12.2%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka Capital; price target $9

Broadcom (BRCM 56.85, +0.60, +1.1%): downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie... downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna... downgraded to Hold from Buy at Topeka Capital; price target raised to $60 from $53... downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen; price target raised to $58 from $52... downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley... downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman... price target raised to $58 from $48 at UBS; Neutral... price target raised to $59 from $51 at Canaccord Genuity; Hold... price target raised to $67 fron $59 at Brean Capital; Buy

Tech Data (TECD 63.12, -1.37, -2.1%): downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James... price target raised to $71 from $63 at Brean Capital; Buy

Himax Tech (HIMX 6.26, -0.27, -4.1%): downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Chardan Capital; price target lowered to $4 from $5

Rally Software Development (RALY 19.42, -0.03, -0.2%): downgraded to Neutral from Buy at ROTH Capital

Marvell (MRVL 13.99, -0.21, -1.5%): initiated with Sell at Citigroup; price target $13

ExlService (EXLS 35.90, +0.20, +0.6%): initiated with Neutral at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey; price target $39

Descartes (DSGX 15.24, +0.05, +0.3%): price target raised to $18 from $17 at Barclays; Overweight

Skyworks (SWKS 109.36, +1.71, +1.6%): price target raised to $130 from $108 at Canaccord Genuity; Buy

Splunk (SPLK 67.62, -3.45, -4.9%): price target lowered to $83 from $86 at Canaccord Genuity; Buy

ePlus (PLUS 77.65, -6.83, -8.1%): price target raised to $90 from $85 at Canaccord Genuity; Buy

QAD (QADA 23.90, -1.41, -5.6%): price target raised to $28 from $25 at The Benchmark Company; Buy

OmniVision (OVTI 26.96, -0.15, -0.6%): price target raised to $29 from $27 at Wedbush; Neutral

VeriFone (PAY 38.16, +0.13, +0.3%): price target raised to $45 from $44 at Wedbush; Outperform

HubSpot (HUBS 50.80, -1.16, -2.2%): price target raised to $60 from $50 at Needham; Buy

NXP Semi (NXPI 112.28, +1.49, +1.3%): price target raised to $130 from $120 at Stifel; Buy

Ambarella (AMBA 90.21, +1.25, +1.4%): price target raised to $99 from $73 at Stifel; Buy

Activision Blizzard (ATVI 25.26, -0.47, -1.8%): price target raised to $30 from $26 at Stifel; Buy

Infoblox (BLOX 25.99, -0.33, -1.3%): price target raised to $30 from $28 at Piper Jaffray; Overweight

Palo Alto Networks (PANW 169.49, +3.12, +1.9%): price target raised to $185 from $170 at Imperial Capital; Outperform

NQ Mobile (NQ 4.11, -0.03, -0.7%): resumed with Buy at Rosenblatt; price target $8.10

Weekly Recap - Week ending 29-May-15Dow -115.44 at 18010.68, Nasdaq -27.95 at 5070.03, S&P -13.40 at 2107.39

The major averages registered their second consecutive decline on Friday, but they managed to end May in the green. The S&P 500 lost 0.6% today, but added 1.1% for the month while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) ended in-line with the S&P 500 on Friday, but gained 2.6% in May.

Equity indices spent the duration of the session in negative territory with heavily-weighted sectors like consumer discretionary (-0.7%), financials (-0.9%), industrials (-1.0%), and technology (-0.8%) exerting pressure on the market. Furthermore, uninspiring economic data and the lack of tangible progress between Greece and its creditors weighed on the overall sentiment.

To be sure, stocks climbed off their late-morning lows after Greece's Economy Minister Giorgos Stathakis said his country will make its next debt payment to the International Monetary Fund. According to Mr. Stathakis, the country will pay EUR304 million next Friday. That headline was viewed as a positive sign considering deposit outflows in Greece have accelerated, dropping overall balances to levels not seen in more than ten years, according to reports.

The late-morning boost helped the S&P 500 reclaim more than 2/3 of its decline, but the index revisited its session low during afternoon action amid persistent weakness in some of the most influential sectors. Eight sectors ended the day in negative territory with industrials (-1.0%) spending the day behind its peers.

Once again, transport stocks struggled, evidenced by a 0.8% decline in the Dow Jones Transportation Average. The bellwether complex lost 2.2% for the week and surrendered 3.4% in May. Con-way (CNW 40.47, -1.42) was the weakest performer of the bunch, falling 3.4% after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock to 'Underperform.'

Elsewhere, the technology sector (-0.8%) slipped behind the broader market during afternoon action, but chipmakers showed relative strength. The PHLX Semiconductor Index added 0.3% with Altera (ALTR 48.85, +1.88) spiking 4.0% amid renewed speculation the company may be acquired by Intel (INTC 34.51, +0.50). For the month, the PHLX Semiconductor Index soared 8.6% while the tech sector added 2.1%.

All ten sectors registered losses with energy (-0.1%) ending just below its flat line even as crude oil jumped 4.5% to $60.26/bbl. Over on the countercyclical side, health care (-0.2%) and utilities (-0.2%) outperformed while consumer staples (-0.7%), and telecom services (-0.5%) ended near the broader market.

Treasuries climbed into the afternoon, ending on their highs with the 10-yr yield down three basis points at 2.10%.

Today's participation was above-average with month-end flows contributing to the increased activity as more than a billion shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Q1 GDP, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment Index:

  • First quarter GDP was revised down to -0.7% in the second estimate from an originally reported +0.2% in the advance release, which is what the Briefing.com consensus expected
    • That was the first contraction in GDP growth since Q1 2014
    • The real final sales component, which strips out volatile inventories, declined 1.1%. That topped the 1.0% decline from Q1 2014 and was the biggest real final sales drop since a 3.3% decline in Q1 2009, suggesting that economic growth trends in Q1 2015 were some of the worst seen since the Great Recession
  • The Chicago PMI declined to 46.2 in May from 52.3 in April while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 53.0
    • That was the third time the Chicago PMI has fallen below 50, the expansion/contraction threshold, in the last four months
    • With the exception of the Prices Paid Index (51.2 from 43.1), all of the sub-indexes declined and also contracted in May
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 90.7 in the May final reading from 88.6 in the preliminary reading while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 89.0
    • The month-over-month decline in sentiment generally reflects higher gasoline prices while other factors that influence sentiment trends, like equity movements and labor market conditions, were largely flat in May
On Monday, Personal Income/Spending data for April and Core PCE Prices will be released at 8:30 ET while April Construction Spending and the May ISM Index will both be reported at 10:00 ET.

Week in Review: Nasdaq Sets Fresh Record Close

Bond and equity markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day.

On Tuesday, each of the major indices fell at least 1.0% as buyers proved to be a reluctant bunch. That reluctance started early and it continued for most of the session, which saw the S&P 500 flirt with testing support at its 50-day simple moving average (2096). The fact that the S&P 500 didn't pierce that level was perhaps the lone bright spot in Tuesday's action, which saw all ten sectors lose ground and all 30 Dow components end with a loss.

The major averages enjoyed a daylong rally on Wednesday that helped the S&P 500 (+0.9%) erase the bulk of its decline from Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (+1.5%) closed at a fresh record high and turned its weekly decline into a 0.3% advance for the week. Equity indices began the session with modest gains and enjoyed an early surge amid reports that Greek officials and Eurogroup members have started crafting a staff-level agreement to secure funds for the country. However, those reports were refuted during the next hour with Bloomberg citing a Eurogroup official as saying the two sides have yet to begin working on a joint statement. Strikingly, the stock market all but ignored the prompt refutation and continued rising into the afternoon with the technology sector (+1.8%) pacing the move. The PHLX Semiconductor Index surged 3.9% after it was reported that Avago Technologies (AVGO 141.49, +10.19) is in advanced talks to acquire Broadcom (BRCM 57.13, +10.21). Shares of AVGO jumped 7.8% while Broadcom soared 21.8%.

The stock market spun its wheels throughout the Thursday session, ending on a modestly lower note. The S&P 500 shed 0.1% after spending the entire day in negative territory amid light volume. Equity indices began the day in the red with some residual damage to risk tolerance after China's Shanghai Composite tumbled 6.5% in reaction to more equity brokers increasing their margin requirements. Furthermore, repurchase operations conducted by the People's Bank of China stirred concerns that the central bank may be preparing to stop or slow its easing cycle. To be fair, the decline in the Shanghai Composite only caused the index to surrender its week-to-date gain. In either case, things did not get any more cheery by the start of the European session with signals from the G7 meeting in Dresden suggesting that wide-ranging differences remain between Greece and the creditor institutions. The PHLX Semiconductor Index added 0.1% after Wednesday's rumor became Thursday's news and Avago Technologies (AVGO 142.38, +0.89) confirmed its acquisition of Broadcom (BRCM 56.25, -0.91) for $37 billion.

IndexStarted WeekEnded WeekChange% ChangeYTD %
DJIA18232.0218010.68-221.34-1.21.1
Nasdaq5089.365070.03-19.33-0.47.1
S&P 5002126.062107.39-18.67-0.92.4
Russell 20001252.221246.53-5.69-0.53.5


5:39 pm This week's biggest % gainers/losers (:SCANX) : The following are this week's top 20 percentage gainers and top 20 percentage losers, categorized by sectors (over $300 mln market cap and 100K average daily volume).

This week's top 20 % gainers

Healthcare:HRTX (19.76 +58.46%),FPRX (25.64 +27.88%),CLLS (42.9 +26.18%),IDRA (3.84 +22.68%),AMRN (2.31 +20.31%),HUM (214.65 +19.92%),RTRX (31.64 +18.9%),KANG (20.7 +17.88%),AGEN (8.18 +16.69%),PRTA (39.44 +15.86%),CCXI (8.67 +15.75%),MNKD (5.18 +14.6%)

Industrials:TITN (15.89 +17.97%)

Consumer Discretionary:SFXE (4.87 +18.2%)

Information Technology:RALY (19.42 +42.69%),BRCM (56.85 +20.3%),SIMO (35.46 +15.47%),VIMC (14.89 +13.58%)

Energy:MDR (5.46 +16.92%)

Utilities:NYLD (27.07 +14.9%)

This week's top 20 % losers


Materials:SID (1.91 -17.67%),CENX (11.18 -12.18%),GEF (38.19 -11.62%)

Industrials:URI (88.91 -15.24%),MY (3.09 -14.88%),TEX (24.73 -13.92%),EGLE (9.05 -13.06%)

Consumer Discretionary:TLYS (9.64 -26.8%),KORS (46.5 -24.55%),DANG (8.37 -21.85%),TOUR (16.69 -17.9%),QUNR (44.09 -15.76%),JMEI (22.53 -11.3%)

Information Technology:LEJU (7.56 -12.8%)

Energy:FRO (2.58 -13.71%),GTE (2.9 -12.91%),IO (1.42 -11.8%),CNX (27.84 -11.59%),ECR (6.3 -11.39%),TDW (24.54 -11.18%)

4:06 pm Lattice Semi subsidiary SiBEAM, Inc announces that Google ATAP has selected it as a partner for integrating touchless gesture sensing to smart devices ( LSCC) :

4:04 pm Qualcomm subsidiary Qualcomm Technologies announces that its Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 processor will power Google's ( GOOG) next-gen Project Tango smartphone development platform ( QCOM) :

3:31 pm Earnings Preview for the week of June 1 - 5 (:SUMRX) : Of the companies reporting earnings for the week of June 1 - 5 some of the bigger names include:

Monday:
After Hours - PVH

Tuesday:

Pre Market - MDT, DG, CBRL, CONN, SOL, AMWD, DAKT
After Hours - ABM, ASNA, GES, GIII, NCS, GWRE, AMBA, VMEM

Wednesday:

Pre Market - BF.B, NX
After Hours - FIVE, LF

Thursday:
Pre Market - NAV, SJM, MIK, JOY, CIEN, LE, CYBX
After Hours - THO, ESL, PAY, COO, IDT, DMND, ZUMZ, ALOG, ZOES, VNCE, RALY, SEAC

Friday:
Pre Market - YGE, LITB, IXYS

12:39 pm Notable movers of interest (:SCANX) : The following are some of today's most notable movers of interest, categorized by market capitalization (large cap over $10 billion and mid cap between $2-10 billion) and ranked by % change (all stocks over 100K average daily volume).

Large Cap Gainers

ALTR (48.99 +4.3%): Reports out the co is near a deal to be acquired by Intel (INTC) for $15 bln.
AVGO (147.04 +3.27%): Favorable commentary on Thursday's Mad Money; Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; PT raised at Brean Capital, Craig Hallum, & Canaccord Genuity.
LLY (78.46 +2.68%): Announced a clinical trial collaboration with AstraZeneca (AZN) to evaluate the safety and preliminary efficacy of MEDI4736 in combination with ramucirumab; also notable earnings activity in the name.

Large Cap Losers


VIPS
(24.69 -2.72%): Underperforming following renewed cautious blog commentary.
POT (31.71 -1.93%): Downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Securities.
CMI (136.12 -2.25%): Under pressure following negative commentary from BofA/Merrill on the trucking industry.

Mid Cap Gainers


GME
(44 +7.53%): Beat Q1 consensus EPS estimates by $0.09, beat on revs; guided Q2 EPS in-line; raised FY16 EPS guidance, just below consensus, reaffirmed comps. Price tgt raised at Telsey Advisory Group.
ALKS (61.98 +3.44%): Said it would present data from its phase 1 clinical study of ALKS 8700 for the treatment of multiple sclerosis; exposures comparable to Tecfidera, with favorable gastrointestinal tolerability.
NBR (14.9 +2.55%): Initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan.

Mid Cap Losers


GEF
(37.75 -9.6%): Revised its FY15 EPS guidance to $1.65-1.75, down from previous guidance of $2.25 to $2.35; downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill.
VEEV (27.63 -4.72%): Beat Q1 consensus EPS estimates by $0.02, beat on revs; guided Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guided FY16 EPS in-line, revs in-line.
URI (89.16 -6.1%): Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill.

11:49 am Stocks/ETFs that traded to new 52 week highs/lows this session - New highs (90) outpacing new lows (78) (:SCANX)
: Stocks that traded to 52 week highs: ALJ, ALN, ALTR, AMAG, AMBA, ANAC, ANCX, ATTU, ATVI, AVGO, AVID, BCV, BF.A, BLOX, BSQR, CBIN, CBPO, CE, CIEN, CIVI, COHU, CSGS, CYNI, DATE, DRC, DRRX, EBAY, EGRX, EMKR, EPAM, FHN, FMBI, FOE, FTNT, FUN, GKNT, GTT, HMHC, HMPR, HOLX, HRTX, HSKA, HSP, IMPV, IMS, INNL, ISSI, KTWO, LLY, LOGI, LYTS, MDLZ, MFG, MMI, MOFG, MRTX, MTG, NEP, NFLX, NPTN, NUVA, NYCB, PBCT, PKBK, PLXS, PRAH, PZZA, Q, QTEC, RARE, RTRX, SAGE, SAL, SBUX, SEDG, SFG, SIMO, SKX, SNOW, SNX, SOXX, STRP, STRZA, SUNE, TCX, UEC, ULTA, VC, VIMC, ZTS

Stocks that traded to 52 week lows: AA, ACI, AIQ, AMIC, ARO, ASM, AVH, AWX, AXE, BKK, BOOM, CBD, CCG, CEN, CKP, CLI, CNI, CNW, CP, CPA, CPST, CRD.B, CTL, CTP, CVSL, DAVE, DEJ, DXM, FAX, FHCO, FPO, GCO, GMCR, GRVY, HGG, HK, HNRG, IMRS, INF, ISH, KEM, KORS, KSU, LXFR, MPA, MUJ, MXWL, NAV, NCZ, NMRX, NOR, NRP, NSC, NTX, NUM, NVDQ, ORN, PFIS, PNX, PQ, PRI, RBCN, RELL, RLJE, SGI, SJR, SJT, STRM, TRMB, TROX, UE, USEG, VNCE, WPG, WRES, WYNN, XPL, YRCW

ETFs that traded to 52 week highs: PPH, SMH, SOXX

ETFs that traded to 52 week lows: KOL



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (68711)5/31/2015 1:23:42 PM
From: Return to Sender1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Donald Wennerstrom

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95757
 
InvestmentHouse - GDP Slips Negative as Expected (Weekend Newsletter)

investmenthouse.com

- Stocks, sans semiconductors, sag a bit to end the month on a Russell rebalance.
- GDP slips negative as expected, but not as negative as expected.
- Chicago PMI turns to contraction, but Michigan sentiment all smiles again.
- Market continues trending higher but very choppy, very slow, very mistrusted.
- Chips and techs along with drugs/healthcare leading as they should in summer. Will that be enough?

Friday stocks sagged back a bit more from the Wednesday SOX/NASDAQ-led move, leaving SP500, DJ30 and SP400 basically where they were after the Tuesday selling. SOX, NASDAQ, and RUTX on the other hand held up quite well, leaving themselves in position for next week and the start of June. The question, of course, is whether the new month brings new money, and after that is put to work, whether the moves hold and more money follows. It is the true start of summer, and the market will need SOX and NASDAQ to continue to lead as summer is the time for techs.

SP500 -13.40, -0.63%
NASDAQ -27.95, -0.55%
DJ30 -115.44, -0.64%
SP400 -0.63%
RUTX -0.52%
SOX 0.29%

VOLUME: Surged but it was the Russell rebalance. NYSE +74%. NASDAQ +13%.

A/D: NYSE -2.2:1, NASDAQ -1.7:1. Nothing really bad.

Again SOX was the leader even though it was up just two points. The rest of the market was in pretty solid shape, recovering into midday and again coming back in the last hour from some afternoon weakness. Then the Russell rebalance took over and stocks faded while volume exploded.

The result left the NYSE indexes struggling at the early week lows and indeed DJ30 closed at a lower low below the 50 day EMA and SMA. It doesn't look great, and with DJ20 transports breaking lower on the week and closing with a lower low, DJ30 remains on thin ice. SP500 and SP400? Not bad, holding over the 50 day EMA and still looking good enough to put in higher lows and continue the trend higher. That appears to be a hated prospect by most market commentators.

NASDAQ was down but it looks good, holding the 10 day EMA on the close, coming off the January trendline touched on the low. Bumped that higher high, could not hold it, but not giving in, not yet. SOX showed a second doji. After the run off the early May low, the huge surge Wednesday, perhaps this signals SOX is ready to take a rest near term. As chips have driven the market, that takes a major upside force out of play for a bit and that would suggest the market tests.

That remains to be seen. Chips finished the week strong. SWKS, NXPI, AVGO, SIMO, FSL. Others are testing great moves, e.g. AAOI, XLNX. The new month and the last month of Q2 could see new money put to work in these winners and other techs in good position, e.g. software. We would like to use that to take some gain off the table in the chips, then see if they test. As of Friday, however, the moves looked still very strong and we preferred letting them work into early June. After all, we have banked some money on them already so we want to see if they can continue to lead into summer as techs, and chips are tech, are the boys of summer for the market, so to speak.


THE NEWS/ECONOMY

Q1 GDP Revised negative, but only to -0.7% (pre-second seasonal adjusting)




After 2.2% in Q4, negative in Q1 is no way to start a year. But, not to worry because the seasonally adjusted numbers are going to be seasonally readjusted to eliminate the purportedly built in negative bias. We had a saying when I practiced law: good facts, argue the facts. Bad facts, argue the law. Thing is, you could not change the facts. With the federal government, apparently you can.

Real final sales (sales ex-inventories): -1.1%. For comparison, in Q1 2014 final sales fell 1.0%. The decline is the largest since -3.3% in Q1 2009. That does not bode well for 2015: growth is the worst since the 2008 depression started.

Inventories: $95B versus 110.2B initially reported. That means inventories added only 0.33% versus 0.74% as initially reported. This was the largest impact on the revision. Now, without inventories GDP would be -3+%.

Personal Consumption: 1.8% versus 2% expected. In Q1 2014 it was -2.11%. Hey, improvement!

Corporate Profits: -$125.5B versus -$30.4B in Q4 2014.
This is the third large profits crash since the Depression began. Not so bad, right? Here is the issue: this crash is on the heels of a massive crash in Q1 2014. The prior was in 2011. In other words, it looks as if the profits uptrend is starting to falter.


As some put it, this was the worst quarter of economic 'growth' since the depression started.

Under the current Administration, economic growth has averaged 1.8% per quarter. 1.8%!


'1.8 G** D*** Percent is all the GDP growth we got?' -- Bob Uecker as Harry Doyle, the Cleveland Indian's radio announcer in 'Major League' (1989)


Michigan Sentiment falls but beats the first read. At the same time, Chicago PMI turns sharply into contraction.

Michigan Sentiment fell but it rose from the preliminary reading. Still over 90; not huge, not terrible.

Contrast that with the Chicago PMI, sliding into contraction at 46.2 from 52.3 in April.

The Chicago PMI covers the Midwest and the auto making Michigan area. This underscores just how sentiment has virtually zero use in economic review except at major extremes, i.e. in the 40's or 50's when times are bad.

SUMMARY: Now all of this is spun into positives by our leaders. As announced last week, GDP will be re-revised or re-readjusted in order to raise it in Q1. Talked about this earlier: bad facts/bad law.

So how do we know what is really the answer in terms of the economy? Well, the jobs market is HUGE in terms of a tell: One-half of Americans on food stamps, over 100M working aged Americans out of the workforce altogether.

Okay, that helps put it in perspective, but let's look at social issues, those that are a tell in bad times: the crime rate or the murder rate. In bad times tempers are short, people get desperate, very bad emotional decisions are made.

Murders are exploding. NYC just reported a 15% increase in 2015. Houston +60% in 2015. Cities where social strife has occurred such as Baltimore make the NYC and the Houston numbers look tame.

Some will say, 'yes, but these are nowhere near the levels of the 1980's and 1990's.' True, but they are spiking of late when half the US is on Food Stamps and over 100M are not only out of work but out of the workforce altogether. That makes those weekly jobless claims numbers at 40 year lows rather meaningless. You have to have SOMEBODY working; you cannot fire them all.

Of course with initiatives such as the $15/hour minimum wage, there will be more layoffs and also less jobs for the high school and college kids because automation will take over. A story today discussed how several WHITE COLLAR jobs can already be performed by robots. I recall clerking in a law firm many, many years ago and one of the partners telling the fellow who ran the copy rooms that if the huge copiers they had could talk the copy room manager would be out of a job. Harsh, but the ring of truth. That irony of raising wages for jobs that were never intended to be destination 'living wage' jobs only to see that higher wage hasten the elimination of those jobs.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

NASDAQ: It is said summer is the time for techs and over the past three weeks as Memorial Day approached and arrived NASDAQ has performed well, pushing to a new closing high Wednesday. While it faded into Friday, it held the January up trendline and closed the session at the 10 day EMA. Higher low after the Tuesday selling, pushing higher, now a modest test. It is still basically a double top even after this week. That means NASDAQ still has to prove it can rally further. It has the horses to do it with chips, software, healthcare, telecom, but they have to make the move and overcome the lower volume on the highs and he lower MACD.

SOX: Led the market with that Wednesday surge and added modest gains Thursday and Friday. New long-term high with these stocks energized by the AVGO/BRCM deal, but it was more than that. These stocks were up ahead of the Wednesday move and they continued higher through Friday.

SP500: Fell to the 50 day EMA Tuesday, rebounded, then faded Friday back near the 50 day. Not a big week, indeed a down week, but still trending higher up a key support level. Of course it has to prove it can hold it -- again -- but financial stocks continue sporting solid patterns along with drug stocks, and if they continue higher then SP500 can continue higher as well. Another important test, and it has the same issues, e.g. low volume on the new high two weeks back, MACD lagging. Yet it keeps overcoming these obstacles.

RUTX: Not the prettiest pattern and had to fight off a Tuesday break of the 50 day EMA. It did, however, do just that, bouncing Wednesday and then holding the move into the weekend. Yes it sold Friday but it also recovered off the intraday low, showing some tenacity. Higher low and we will see if it can build off of that.

SP400: The midcaps show the same action as SP500, bouncing off the 50 day EMA hit Tuesday then selling back to that level Friday. Not great, but still trending higher and the midcaps are holding where they need to. Kind of the same analysis as the SP500.

DJ30: The one index that did not hold the Tuesday low, cracking through both 50 day MA. Recovered some off the low but you have to note the breach of this support. It did this in early May but recovered. Same heavy look now but it will have to show it can make that move.


LEADERSHIP

Chips, drugs, software, healthcare, financial, telecom

Chips: Again the clear leader and market driver, the semiconductors. While many stocks that rallied on the week faded Friday, many chips continued higher, showing the sector's strength. NXPI added another 1.3%. SWKS added 1.6%. FSL added 1.2%. SIMO added 3.8%. AVGO 4%. QRVO was not up as it continued testing its big two week move. Strong sector.

Software: Some good moves on the week, some status quo. Set up very well, just needs to move. FEYE up nicely on the week though flat Friday. SPLK struggled after earnings but held support and rebounded to cut a good part of the loss and hold its range. VDSI tested the breakout at the 20 day EMA, starting to bounce. VMW tested the 50 day EMA midweek, bouncing. FFIV is still in the test at the 20 day EMA. Good, but they need to move.

Drugs/biotech: TTPH tried to break higher, faded and still in a good test. BCRX in a nice flag after breaking the 200 day SMA upside. AGIO a solid week, testing Friday. REGN testing a good move. HZNP also testing a break higher. CRIS moving well again. CLVS holding its pullback. Very up and down in biotech with drugs a better looking group.

Financial: GS testing the 10 day EMA as it holds a strong trend higher. MA holding the 20 day EMA on a test of its April to May move. BAC testing the 200 day SMA it broke through. NOAH still a nice 50 day EMA test.

Internet: GIMO testing a great move. LLNW a strong week. VIPS is getting interesting with a double bottom.

Big Names: EBAY breaking to a higher high on volume. AAPL testing the 10 day EMA after a decent two week advance. AMZN still working laterally along the 20 day EMA in its pattern. MSFT still working on a 5 week pennant, setting up nicely.


MARKET STATISTICS

NASDAQ
Stats: -27.95 points (-0.55%) to close at 5070.03
Volume: 1.893B (+13.06%)

Up Volume: 771.97M (-34.97M)
Down Volume: 1.24B (+336.15M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.65 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.14 to 1

New Highs: 85 (-6)
New Lows: 41 (-9)

S&P
Stats: -13.4 points (-0.63%) to close at 2107.39
NYSE Volume: 1.2B (+73.84%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.16 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.4 to 1

New Highs: 49 (-12)
New Lows: 59 (+2)

DJ30
Stats: -115.44 points (-0.64%) to close at 18010.68


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 13.84; +0.53
VXN: 14.75; +0.53
VXO: 14.46; +0.86

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.16; +0.08. Now four sessions straight of 1.0+ closes. Getting a good string of negative sentiment that can help foster a new upside move.


Bulls and Bears: Bulls surge, bears fall right back down.

Bulls: 48.5% versus 50.6% versus 47.5% versus 52.5%

Bouncing up and down each week, the kind of volatility that shows indecision and that is not bad. The bulls are not so cock-sure of themselves anymore.

Bears: 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 15.8% versus 13.9%

Okay, the bears decline as the bulls decline. Bulls less bullish, bears less bearish. Still feeling the Fed is there with the Fed put? Whatever the reason, bears are still too low.

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 40.5%
50.6% versus 47.5% versus 52.5% versus 57.4% versus 52.5% versus 50.5% versus 50.4% versus 54.5% versus 55.6% versus 52.0% versus 53.6% versus 58.7% versus 59.5% versus 56.6% versus 52.5% versus 49.0% versus 53.1% versus 49.0% versus 48.0% versus 50.5% versus 56.4% versus 52.5% versus 49.5% versus 51.5% versus53.4% versus 56.5%

Background: Last undercut 35%, the threshold for bullishness, in early June 2012.

Bears: 14.9%
15.8% versus 13.9% versus 13.9% versus 15.2% versus 13.9% versus 14.2% versus 14.2% versus 14.1% versus 14.3% versus 14.1% versus 14.1% versus 14.1% versus 14.1% versus 15.2% versus 16.3% versus 16.3% versus 17.4% versus16.3% versus 15.2% versus 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 14.9% versus 14.8% versus 13.9% versus 13.8%


Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Right now bulls are coming back down from the 60 level that has consistently marked market tops over the past two years. The rapid decline in progress is pushing the bulls/bears lines toward one another. Still far from a cross with bulls falling faster than bears are rising, but bears are warming up to the notion of market weakness.


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 2.10% versus 2.137% versus 2.133%. Gapped upside on the weaker GDP and Chicago PMI data. Faded the move but holding the 1.5 week rebound off the mid-May low.

Historical: 2.137% versus 2.133% versus 2.13% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.25% versus 2.294% versus 2.22% versus 2.15% versus 2.23% versus 2.28% versus 2.26% versus 2.283% versus 2.14% versus 2.18% versus 2.23% versus 2.17% versus 2.15% versus 2.11% versus 2.04% versus 2.05% versus 1.99% versus 1.92%


Euro/$: 1.0985 versus 1.0945. Tight doji at the 50 day SMA, testing after breaking over that level Tuesday. That capped that part of the recovery and this looks very much like a 1-2-3 test of that move, setting up a run at the March/April highs.

Historical: 1.0945 versus 1.0904 versus 1.0878 versus 1.1012 versus 1.1111 versus 1.1093 versus 1.1149 versus 1.1314 versus 1.1449 versus 1.1408 versus 1.1311 versus 1.1207 versus 1.1152 versus 1.1207 versus 1.1266 versus 1.1349 versus 1.1189 versus 1.1147 versus 1.1215 versus 1.1220 versus 1.119 versus 1.0982 versus 1.0885 versus 1.0862 versus 1.0824 versus 1.0722 versus 1.0733 versus 1.0738 versus 1.0801 versus 1.0768% versus 1.0681 versus 1.0655 versus 1.0570


Oil: 60.26, +2.57. After a week testing down to the 50 day EMA on the Thursday intraday low (and showing a nice doji with tail), oil surged back upside to the top portion of the May range. Strong rebound as the rig count resumed its decline.


Gold: 1190.10, +1.90. After the Tuesday crash through the 50 day MA, a modest 1-2-3 bounce to test that move, tapping at the 50 day SMA on the Friday high, fading to a doji. Gold rallied but failed.

$/JPY: 124.10 versus 123.85 versus 124.12. After the Thursday stall, bounced back upside Friday, but the dollar looks a bit winded near term after its big breakout and run the past two weeks. A pause would be normal, but after any test it is still in a good trend higher.

Historical: 123.85 versus 124.12 versus 124.15 versus 123.11 versus 121.53 versus 121.09 versus 121.35 versus 120.71 versus 119.99 versus 119.33 versus 119.18 versus 119.11 versus 119.93 versus 120.13 versus 119.75 versus 119.75 versus 119.43 versus 119.85 versus 120.12


NEXT WEEK

Friday we picked up some EYES highlighted in the Thursday report along with KE and some CLX puts. That is the summer bifurcation: medical and techs move higher, consumer moves lower. Banked some gain on SIMO as it continued higher above our initial target; maybe should have waited, but we wanted to bank part of the gain on a strong 16+% move on the week.

Again, we now see what the new month, the last of the quarter and the start of summer, brings to the move. Ever since the rally off the October Ebola low stocks have moved higher, but slowly, slowly, unable to hold moves to higher highs, but also not giving up the moves. Threatened to, but found leadership, the last move from midcaps then chips and techs.

Now the next test. Overall the action seems heavy, unable to hold higher highs. Perhaps the market is eroding its support with the slow, somewhat volatile climb. That is what experience says, and thus we will look at taking some more gain off the table as new money is put to work for June. After that, we see how the market holds, and most importantly, how the current leaders hold their patterns and whether new leaders can enter. They set up to do so but then got some cold feet. Some great setups, but they are, as we know, just pretty pictures until they make their moves.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 5070.03

Resistance:
5120 is the April 2015 post-bear market high
5132.52 is the 3/2000 all-time high

Support:
5044 is the January to April pattern trendline
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 4996
4912 the mid-April China dip
The March lows at 4843 and 4825
4815 is the December 2014 prior market peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 4743
4631 is the October 2014 upside gap point
4610 is the September 2014 post-bear market high.
4566 is the lower gap point from late October
4563 and 4567 are the January lows
4547 is the December low


S&P 500: Closed at 2107.39

Resistance:
2115 is the late March lower high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high

Support:
The 50 day EMA at 2101
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November
2076 is the all-time high from November
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2042
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
The December and January highs at 1848
The April 2014 low at 1814
1808 is the November and December 2013 twin peaks
1775.22 is the October prior all-time high


Dow: Closed at 18,010.68

Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 18,044
18,104 is the December high
18,206 is the late March lower high
18,289 is the March 2015 high, the prior all-time high
18,351 is the May 2015 all-time high

Support:
17,991 is the early December interim
The January trendline at 17,979
17,923 is the January 2015 lower high
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff
The March low at 17,620
The 200 day SMA at 17,578
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,736 is the penultimate all-time high from May 2014
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

May 29 - Friday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q1 (8:30): -0.7% actual versus -0.7% expected, 0.2% prior
GDP Deflator - Second, Q1 (8:30): -0.1% actual versus -0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
Chicago PMI, May (9:45): 46.2 actual versus 53.0 expected, 52.3 prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, May (10:00): 90.7 actual versus 89.0 expected, 88.6 preliminary

June 1 - Monday
Personal Income, April (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.0% prior
Personal Spending, April (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
PCE Prices - Core, April (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
ISM Index, May (10:00): 51.9 expected, 51.5 prior
Construction Spendin, April (10:00): 0.8% expected, -0.6% prior

June 2 - Tuesday
Factory Orders, April (10:00): 0.0% expected, 2.1% prior
Auto Sales, May (17:00): 5.3M prior
Truck Sales, May (17:00): 7.9M prior

June 3 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 05/30 (7:00): -1.6% prior
ADP Employment Chang, May (8:15): 200K expected, 169K prior
Trade Balance, April (8:30): -$44.0B expected, -$51.4B prior
ISM Services, May (10:00): 57.1 expected, 57.8 prior
Crude Inventories, 05/30 (10:30): -2.802M prior

June 4 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, May (7:30): 52.8% prior
Initial Claims, 05/30 (8:30): 280K expected, 282K prior
Continuing Claims, 05/23 (8:30): 2215K expected, 2222K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q1 (8:30): -2.9% expected, -1.9% prior
Unit Labor Costs - R, Q1 (8:30): 5.9% expected, 5.0% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 05/30 (10:30): 112 bcf prior

June 5 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, May (8:30): 225K expected, 223K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, May (8:30): 225K expected, 213K prior
Unemployment Rate, May (8:30): 5.4% expected, 5.4% prior
Hourly Earnings, May (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Average Workweek, May (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
Consumer Credit, April (14:00): $17.0B expected, $20.5B prior