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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seth thomas who wrote (1009)	12/19/1997 3:26:00 PM
From: Clam Clam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

This doesn't relate to Siebel but SWRT estimate for 1998 was $.89 so at $24.5, that is a multiple of 27.5x... That looks like a pretty good buy for IBM. IBM/Tivoli can get much more in the way of earnings out of SWRT than SWRT could do alone, so assuming SWRT actually could have done $.89 next year, SWRT combined with IBM could do a lot better than $.89 which lowers the multiple paid by IBM. IMO, SWRT did not have a sustainable growth business as a standalone company. The story was improving but it was just a matter of time before they blew up again. Despite selling out for a stock price below where it traded in 1995, SWRT did the right thing for selling, IMO. This is 100% speculation but I bet the board forced management to do the deal as management probably had oversized egos and thought they were worth at least as much as the other help-desk companies (i.e., Remedy). Long-term, I bet Remedy goes down the tubes. Anybody want to make a gentlemen's bet on RMDY never going to a new high again. I guess it ain't much of a bet if I say never as never tends to be a long period of time now doesn't it and I will never be able to say I won the bet.