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Biotech / Medical : ImmunoGen -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Felix B who wrote (5559)6/3/2015 1:34:49 AM
From: Gary Mohilner  Respond to of 5665
 
IMGN was greatly undervalued based on partial info from the Marianne Trial for Kadcyla. It seems that new data presented at ASCO show advantages not seen in the initial data, largely based on more extended data showing greater duration in the benefits seen by those on Kadcyla.

Compare IMGN to it's competitor SGEN and see if you can explain how SGEN's market cap is near 5 times that of IMGN. Compare the total pipeline, the wholly owned pipeline, funding, etc, I believe IMGN is still dramatically undervalued, if not, SGEN is very overvalued. In time I believe that the market cap of IMGN will approach, or exceed that of SGEN unless SGEN has some other blockbuster drugs approved. I have no doubt that both BT-062 and IMGN853 have blockbuster potential, and that Kadcyla will eventually exceed the current $6 billion that Herceptin sells annually, Roche's forecast may be slightly below mine, but what's a billion more or less.

As for approvals, after seeing Dr. Padzur's recent presentation, I don't think IMGN853 will even necessarily have to finish Phase II to be approved if it continues to better than double the SOC's results. Dr. Padzur openly indicated he was looking to shorten the duration of trials for drugs with such exceptional data. I've never liked Dr. Padzur, and it may very well take more time, but their is hope it could be much faster.

If it's not faster, than I believe that BT-062 which IMGN will Opt In for U.S. sales when the drug moves into Phase III will be approved first. There is almost no doubts with results to date that this drug won't be approved. IMGN will have royalty income which should be substantial for ROW, but evenly share the U.S. market which last I heard was roughly 35% of the world market on most drugs, even though we're something like 5% of the world's population.

In short, I believe Institutions, etc drove the price down to load up, then looked for a catalyst to bring it up, yesterday's data was that catalyst, and I believe this is just the beginning. Several of the pipeline drugs will be moving to higher phases later this year, as well as additional drugs being added to the pipeline, all have the potential of seeing IMGN reach new 52 week highs. Today's weakness could only have been prevented after a 70% gain if their had been additional news early today. I suspect their may be more to come from ASCO, but cannot be certain. It's up to IMGN's partners to say what they wish, but I believe that IMGN can reveal anything presented at ASCO at an appropriate time. In general, IMGN and most other companies permit the drug owner/trial sponsor to speak first, then they can comment on what's been said without irritating their partner.

Gary