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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nancy who wrote (5746)	12/19/1997 4:59:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Nancy, there is going to be an earning season in January. Don't think the drillers are going to disappoint. If we continue to go down, we at the rate we are going lately, we will literally go to single digit stock price, not PE, by March. That will only happen if the DOW goes to 3000 and S&P goes to 500. If that happens then the best thing to do is to keep cash. But I'm not convinced that will happen. The worst is going sideway for Jan-Feb. I'm not convinced of that either. As to the natural gas price and crude, they may go down further but the e&p budget for the next year has already been set. Oil and gas prices are forcast at least a year a head. It will take an average crude price of $15 in 98 to trigger a large scale back in e&p budget going into 99 and so forth. But that will be the scnario in the second half of 98, if it happens, pessimistically. There will be a rally in January, the question is the duration. Forget about TA and all, I'm going to stick my neck out and say prices will be at least 10% higher than at current level sometimes in January. The downside risk from here is 10%, counting today's close. It will be important to be more nimble when prices are up and be more alert going into the rally. Well, if I write some more my plane is going to take off.