To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (182115 ) 6/10/2015 12:35:13 PM From: tonto 2 RecommendationsRecommended By FJB TideGlider
Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 224757 Forbes came up with different numbers which are much less. I believe the WH is spinning...don't you? Contra White House, Obamacare Exchanges Enroll Roughly 5 Million Uninsured, Not 11.4 Million Avik Roy , Forbes Staff Last night, the White House tweeted that “about 11.4 million Americans are signed up for private health coverage” through Obamacare’s insurance exchanges. President Obama claims that this figure proves that his health law is working. But once you unravel the spin, what the latest numbers show is that the pace of enrollment in Obamacare’s exchanges has slowed down by more than half. If previous trends hold, Obamacare exchanges have enrolled roughly 5 million previously uninsured individuals: a far cry from 11.4 million. Only 84% of ‘signups’ enroll in coverage As you may remember from our coverage of this issue last year , there are two important ways in which President Obama’s claims about Obamacare enrollment diverge from the facts. The first is that “signups” don’t equal enrollment. In order to actually gain health insurance coverage—that is, a health insurer will pay for your health care claims when you go to the doctor—you have to pay the first month’s premiums. Not everyone does. Last year, the Obama administration reported that about 8 million people signed up by “selecting a marketplace plan” on one of the Obamacare exchanges. By the end of the enrollment year, 6.7 million people were actually enrolled in Obamacare-sponsored private insurance plans: a retention rate of 84%. The Case Against Obamacare: An eBook From Forbes Don’t be fooled. The new health law has disrupted coverage for millions, and driven up costs for millions more. That Obamacare lost some people over the course of the year isn’t anything to fret about. That 84% retention rate is fairly similar to that experienced by private insurers in the conventional, employer-sponsored private insurance market. But still, you didn’t hear the White House trumpet the 6.7 million number as loudly as they had the 8 million one. Applying the same retention rate to the new 11.4 million figure leads to an estimate that Year Two of Obamacare will end up with 9.5 million enrollees: an increase of 2.8 million from the previous year. How many enrollees were previously uninsured? The next question is even more important: how many people enrolling in Obamacare were previously insured? If you go by White House press releases and the related coverage from friendly media outlets, you might think that every one of those enrollees was previously uninsured, and had been saved by Obamacare. Not true. We don’t know the actual number of Obamacare exchange enrollees who were previously uninsured, because the Obama administration hasn’t tracked those statistics. But we do know that at least 4.7 million Americans received cancellation notices in 2013 , because Obamacare’s regulations made their health plans illegal. Based on survey data from McKinsey , last May I estimated that 2.6 million previously uninsured individuals gained private non-group coverage. A survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that 57% of those with exchange-based coverage were previously uninsured, which would amount to 3.8 million in 2014. We also can’t predict whether or not the uninsured fraction will be higher in 2015 than it was in 2014. But if we carry forward the more generous Kaiser estimate of 57%, and combine it with the 84% retention rate, we can estimate that about 5.4 million previously uninsured individuals would be enrolled in Obamacare’s exchanges by the end of the 2015 enrollment period, based on current figures. Needless to say, 5.4 million is not as impressive as 11.4 million. And it means that the White House is being deceptive when it claims that there are 11.4 million sign-ups “thanks to the Affordable Care Act.”