nice work MI, bullish for Vitaros, and I agree on Rayva, so the question is when does APRI post a decent royalty on a 1M+ units of Vitaros sold vs shipped ? Royalties of 30K and 80K are based on how many units sold? According to Collins the royalty is about $2.25 per unit, so the 130K of royalties so far are based on 57,777 units sold perhaps.
Phoenix is probably right.
No point trying to break it down too much yet i think.
But for those of us who might be curious. I guess it allows us to kill time, as there is no 100% sure way of knowing exactly how many units they actually sold.
First of all, Eico, I believe the $2.25 amount was a consensus from a few posters that Collins might have agreed to as a possibility? You in a post a few months ago brought the royalty amount to $1.20 per unit, if memory doesn't fail me. I even replied that you might be closer to the actual royalty per unit than the consensus royalty. Why? The effect of a stronger dollar versus the Euro!!
4th Quarter Royalties came in at 36,000. This is from Units Sold from June 16, 2014 to September 30, 2014.
1st Quarter Royalties came in at 88,000. This is from Units Sold from October 01, 2014 to December 31, 2014.
That means that the Royalties that we are going to see in the next Quarterly Conference Call ( Mid August 2015 ) are going to be from January 01, 2015 to March 30, 2015. * No new Launches there *
Going back to the translation of Units Sold based on the Royalties received. I strongly believe that your amount of 57,777 units sold would be incorrect.
In order to have a ball park idea. You first need to figure out the amount that Sell price for Vitaros that Apricus receives a royalty from. If I recall, the board consensus was €10 per Unit ( even this amount might be incorrect - it might actually be a little higher as an average ).
Then the actual royalty percentage. You multiply Apricus' sell price by the royalty percentage and that gives you the royalty. But this royalty will most likely be in Euro's. You must then exchange the Royalty amounts ( in Euro's ) to U.S. Dollars ( and this is where the amount changes - if in fact it's done in this manner ). The stronger the U.S. Dollar - the less that Apricus receives per Unit of Vitaros Sold. The more Units Sold in order to receive the 36,000 and 88,000 respectively.
Lets say that for the 4Q14 they used the exchange rate of September 30, 2014 and that for the 1Q15 they utilized the exchange rate of December 31, 2014.
That would mean:
36,000 U.S would be divided by $1.26 ( Sep 30 exchange rate ) = € 28,571
88,000 U.S. would be divided by $1.21 ( Dec 30 exchange rate )= € 72,727
Now you have the royalty amounts in Euro's. Now you have to find or estimate the actual royalty.
For the sake of this example, let's use the Board consensus of €10 per unit sold ( wholesale average price ) and a royalty percentage of 12%.
June 16, 2015 to September 30, 2014 period - Royalties of € 28,571.
In order to receive this amount, utilizing the above variables, € 238,000 worth of Vitaros Units would have been sold in this period.
Divide that by € 10 per unit. € 238,000 / € 10 = 23,800 Units Sold during June 16, 2014 through September 30, 2014.
October 01, 2014 to December 31, 2014 period - Royalties of € 72,727.
In order to receive this amount, also utilizing the variables above, € 606,000 worth of Vitaros Units would have to been sold in this period.
Divide that by € 10 per unit. € 606,000 / € 10 = 60,600 Units Sold during October 01, 2014 through December 31, 2014.
If all the above variables are correct. That would mean that 84,400 Units of Vitaros would have been sold in 2014. With only 4 launched Countries and the last one ( Belgium ) with less than two months in the market at the end of year cutoff.
They had 450,000 Units of Vitaros shipped by December 31, 2014. That would mean that 365,600 ˜ units of Vitaros had been shipped and remained in the market at December 31, 2014. This is also assuming that all the 450,000 units shipped of Vitaros were for commercial use and none of them samples ( I think this notion would also be incorrect - I think a certain amount of the 450K are/were samples ).
Again, if the utilized variables are correct, that would mean that 430 Vitaros Units per day were Sold in 2014.
We have to remember that Vitaros was NEWLY launched during this period. It was only being sold in 4 Countries and there is no real advertisement ( As those of us in the U.S. are accustomed to - T.V. commercials running on every channel every commercial break ).
365,000 ˜ Units of Vitaros shipped and remaining to be sold at December 31, 2014 might also be the reason we hardly had any more shipments in 2015 through May 04, 2015. We only had 130,000 units shipped between January 01, 2015 through May 04, 2015. They were probably not shipping Vitaros until the units in the market were close to being depleted. Also to be noted is the absence of New Launches in this time-frame.
As you can see, it actually takes quite a bit of time and a little work to put together an estimate of Vitaros units sold. But if I am close to being correct, it serves many purposes. We can get an idea of what is actually happening out there. We can estimate the royalty amount that Apricus receives per unit.
Utilizing my data above - I can estimate a royalty of:
$1.51 U.S. per Unit sold in the June 16, 2014 to September 30, 2014 period and $1.45 U.S. per Unit sold during the October 01, 2014 to December 31, 2014 period. A stronger dollar does have a negative effect on the Royalty amount!!
Feel free to comment or disagree with my estimates ( but do put yours forward ). I love a good discussion. Some would say I love to argue! ;)
And just to hopefully get people out to comment - I will leave you guys with a quote from one of my favorite actors:
" King Kong ain't got shit on me" !! |
