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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (13696)	12/19/1997 10:08:00 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Respond to of 70976

Paul V, Historically, AMAT's PE range from over 50 to 4; in the last downturn the PE was less than 7 even though the company was reporting more than double the earnings of the previous year. Investors in general look at PEs but disregard them if they think the prospect for the next 6 months is bleak. We can guess on what possibly could happen to the stock's price based on what happened in the last downturn:--- The stock came from the high at 60 to the low at 30; then back to 55 only to turn back to 30; then rallied to 40 before settling for a while at 30. The company was doing well at those times---reporting more than 100% improvement in earnings from the previous year. 30 was the support, a 50% decline from the high...Then when the company did not meet earnings expectations and warned Investors of slowdown on Push-outs, Investors drove the stock down to the low 20s, a decline of 63% from the high...The stock hit the 50% decline in price recently at 25 1/2---at this time when the company is still reporting Good earnings; when the company hints on Push-outs, we could see the stock at 20 (63% decline from 54 3/16)...Previously, it took the stock 1 year to glide to the bottom; something more serious is going on---the stock crashed in a month (45% decline) then, 3 months more and it got the 50% decline; so scarily fast!...

To: Paul V. who wrote (13696)	12/19/1997 10:57:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

PV, I am really expecting the Semi sector chart to hit the 70%, statistically, during May or at least prior to August, expecially since the funds have again jumped on board. What do you perceives are the pro's and con's of such a movement? What price movement estimate would you place on AMAT during such a movement. If I were a were a betting man I would bet that we will have a run up and another split prior to or prior to August 1999. Threaders, what are the odds of such a movement. Hard to say what the funds will do longer term, it depends on the perceived health of the industry into July/August and looking forward into 1999 (after the 1/2 year point). This is like trying to draw an ace from the deck, lots of cards to choose from and no sure way of telling what may turn up to change the game. Still to many cards in the deck. I wouldn't bet on a split before 2000 based on current market conditions and uncertain customer buying/spending potential until things stabilize and the need for new fabs/equipment starts the next "wave" of high dollar purchases. There is no real compelling product "necessity" on the market to drive new fab expansion for new consumer products, IMHO. As far as the BTB "semi-cycle" every 8 to 9 months,does that correlate to a calendar cycle year-to-year? If so, it could suggest annual budgetary outlays based on projected chip sales growth and fab/technology expansion by corporations forcasting their growth requirements, hard to say if the correlation is valid. Would need to see a chart comparing fab expansion, device geometry change, new products/sales comparison graph to understand the possible implications, would be a good exercise though if you could find the correlating factors. Regards, BB