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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (2818)	12/21/1997 11:32:00 AM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 78748

Paul I was sincerely touched that anyone remembered the Stein/Wasserman connection. Boy. FOX. Do I remember that one. Until Marvin Davis and Marc Rich bought the company nothing got realized from FOX.Then Rich and Davis got ten dollars for every dollar the sharholders got. Another media ream the share holders was Metromedia ala Kluge. Shareholders got one dollar for every share: John Kluge got $10 for every dollar invested (from Rupert Murdoch). No one seemed to notice. At least in MCA everyone got out on a level playing field. I'm not invested in anything except OXHP now. Down 50% in my position in a month. Bascially, this market is terribly hard to find value in right now. One tries to find some value but it is tough. I'd suggest the biotech's when they crash next year: that is, after they go down from their cyclical highs, where they are about now. Buy a biotech for the cash in the bank plus say, a 10% premium. IMHO it is still a gamble, however. But try and get a stock that is really sold down wwith a rproduct in stage III trials like Xoma. Asia is a great buy. Where is the bottom in Asia? I think it will come back. I am close to prayer that it will stabilize. But really you have to watch what happens next year. Will the Asian flu spread? I am haunted by the example of the crash of the Credit Anstalt in Vienna in the 1930's and what that wrought. No one is mentioning the terrible historical precedent of the Credit Anstalt in regard to the "Asian flu". So goddamn dismissive, this pop shrug off of the problem in the financial press...."the Asian flu". Bascially, all credit must be repaid by the person borrower, or the lendor. Right? I think that is the single immutalbe fact of economics. With a debt of $5.5 trillion the US can't let this credit buble burst. This is our ex-President/Movie Star's Alzheimer's legacy to us all. That is why I use the world haunt. I am haunted by the fact we might not be able to wriggle out this time from all this debt. Us. The USA. NO Korea. Not Japan. The US. Returning to the movie stocks I think all these companies have just about run out of and beyond their income streams. UA made a $40 million movie that crashed and burnt. It went down in flames. With a couple of $200 million dollar movies that go down... even a Time Warner could be in deep trouble. Bascially, in an economic slow down can you see paying $9 to go to a movie? Hey, you can count on cable revenues right? But LMDS technology is going to eat cables lunch. Gosh. They're going to eat their dinner too. Well, I've got to get off Paul and read up on all the gloom on the OXHP thread.