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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (3758)	12/19/1997 11:52:00 PM
From: Andrew H	Respond to of 9719

>>Cheer up everyone, holidays are here and we have to have a biotech rally in January....Right?<< Bah, Humbug!! (:>) Let's hope there's a rally in January. By that time I will have sold all my bios for margin calls anyway. >>And the Biotech Century is ready to start just anytime.........<< Just heard its been postponed till the 3rd millenium.

To: Cytokine1 who wrote (3758)	12/20/1997 2:50:00 AM
From: Andrew H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Checked out the release, puppy maker, and thought it was worth posting to the thread. There were several things that were either new or I had missed when the story hit earlier. From what this article suggests, it appears that the market could be much larger than I thought. People might give it to children merely to keep adults (especially those over 65) from catching the flu. The article suggests it could have a major impact on public health. Furthermore, it might save a tremendous amount in doctor visit costs. Finally, it could substantially reduce ear infections in children, which are the most common cause of visits to pediatricians. One major drawback is that docs might hesitate to prescribe it, since it might cut their business substantially. (:>) >>Aviron: Beak Spray? Aviron vaulted to fame in July on reports of its intranasal flu vaccine showing success in clinical trials. The company may be getting some renewed attention now with the news out of Hong Kong, where a deadly strain of flu which killed millions of chickens has spread to at least seven humans, two of whom died. It is too soon to say whether the situation in Hong Kong could become a major crisis or pandemic (an epidemic that spreads across a wide geographic area), but that may hinge on whether this strain of the virus can spread from human to human. Prior to this year it was believed the virus did not even spread from bird to human, but now that has apparently happened so experts are trying to determine whether it can be transmitted from human to human, as at least one case suggests. Coincidentally, Aviron's stock (Nasdaq:AVIR - news) jumped as much as 10% today on over three times average trading volume. The company cited institutional investor activity for today's extraordinary stock action, but one must wonder if there is also some speculation among investors that Aviron will be called upon to save the world from this "chicken flu" outbreak. When asked about such a possibility, Aviron says it is talking with the CDC (Center for Disease Control) and they see no reason why their vaccine could not be used if adapted for this particular strain. Regardless of whether the situation in Hong Kong evolves into anything meaningful, Aviron continues its march toward becoming a biotech phenom. The company's lead drug is the nasal spray flu vaccine which proved highly successful in clinical trials on children. No more screaming kids getting flu shots every fall, indeed, few children currently receive a vaccination because the injection is so painful. This new intranasal vaccine may change all that, assuming the FDA approves it. The story behind the vaccine is certainly compelling. As many as 50 million Americans get the flu each year, and children are two to three times as likely as adults to get it. 80 million flu shots are given each year, yet most children don't get vaccinated because it isn't a serious health risk to most children and the shot is "unpleasant" to say the least. But children can spread it like wildfire, bringing it home from school and passing it on to adults who miss work, etc. More importantly, influenza has potentially serious medical complications for people over 65, killing 20,000 people a year. By stopping epidemics at the school-age level, this could have a major impact on public health. Since the vaccine is in a nasal spray, Aviron intends to make it available in prescription form which can be administered at home. By eliminating a visit to the office or clinic, it would present enormous cost savings to health care providers and insurers. The intranasal vaccine from Aviron is an attenuated live virus, as opposed to the dead virus in current flu shots. The live virus is more effective in stimulating a broad range of immune responses, but it is weakened and altered slightly to prevent actual infection in the throat or lungs. The clinical trial results unveiled in July showed it was not only highly effective at preventing the flu, but probably more effective than the shot. In that study, just 1% of the test subjects who were given the vaccine developed flu symptoms compared to 18% of those who were given a placebo. Shots are estimated to be 70%-90% effective. An added bonus is that since ear infections in small children often arise from the flu, it substantially reduces the incidence of these ear infections (the most common reason for pediatric visits). In short, Aviron's vaccine appears to be easier, cheaper and more effective. It still has to be approved by the FDA, however. The company says it plans to seek FDA approval of the vaccine for children and adults by mid-1998, and hopes to make it available by prescription for the fall 1999 flu season. Earlier this year investment banking firm Robertson, Stephens projected more than $300 million in peak annual sales for this product. At this point, it looks like 1999 is the earliest this development-stage biotech company can hope to see significant revenues. The First Call Earnings Report shows analysts expect Aviron to lose $1.68 this year and $1.63 in 1998. The company is researching or developing several other vaccines for such viruses as herpes simplex 2, Epstein-Barr and several other respiratory diseases besides influenza. Aviron, in collaboration with SmithKline Beecham, began Phase I trials of an Epstein-Barr vaccine. Epstein-Barr is known to cause mononucleosis and may be associated with other serious health problems. Aviron focuses on engineering live viruses that provide safe and cost-effective ways to prevent diseases that have major economic and human impact, in other words, there should be a large and receptive audience for its products. With any development-stage biotech stock, there is substantial risk involved. Obviously this company's fate depends heavily on approval from the FDA in timely fashion. Analysts expect Aviron to file with the FDA for approval of its intranasal flu vaccine in mid-1998, and based on that timeline the company could become profitable in 2000. <<