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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Rich who wrote (31669)	12/20/1997 10:57:00 AM
From: m thompson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Michael:What do you think of BAY lately now that its at 22-23 range? is it an unfair reaction to asia?will it be back to 30 soon or continue lower? seems like a great deal! thanks p.s. whats the formula for calculating a stock is overbought and oversold? thanks matt

To: Michael Rich who wrote (31669)	12/21/1997 7:37:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 58727

Hi Michael Happy Holidays to you and your family, out there on the coast...:>} After reading Barrons today, i think I'll just go out and cut my throat<ggg>> But it was erie, because I have the exact same feelings.. We may rally near term but I think it will be because of seasonal factors only...I 'll sell into it some time in mid Jan...IF it gets anywhere....??? some times with so much bearishness underneath it all, it could trigger a nice rally...BUT!!!! we'll see huh??? I can now look down the road and forsee real trouble ahead for Corp profits in 98...Major recession will loom boldly from Asia feeding into the US, Europe and South America... While the slow down Globally will be good for interest rates here at home, the downside for co's in general will be far more negative...When the Asian consumer stops shopping, and pulls in their horns, we and the rest of the world will surely suffer...When the co's there start to discount their goods, it will precipitate our Corps to lower their prices to compete, hence lower profit margins..and large layoffs in the coming months...watch and see.... When this occurs we'll have a double barrel whammy hit us and around the world...Recession is almost a certainty...and where it stops no one knows... Oh yeah I am bearish, and fearing for everyones portfolios, IRA's, 401K's, mutual funds, etc etc...Things could get very ugly as we move toward and thru this next year...cash & bonds would be good here, NO??? I think the market has begun to discount this Q, but IMO, it's simply not enough, the 1st & 2nd Q's will be even worse...I can't see any real meaningfull earnings till the last half of 98, AFTER ALAN G. lowers rates 50 basis points or so...and Asian gets its act together and we seer real potential results out there...devaluations of currency, bankrupcies, defaults, plant closings, will be disruptive to us all... I would be very nimble here, MF looks sick, after looking at Dorsey this weekend I have never seen such carnage in the charts...and there's more downside coming for sure...I'll be betting on it... Anyway, if KLIC is dead, then the front end guys are deader<g>..DRAM co's and all their food chain co's will be in big trouble going forward...Mikey INTC will be very benefical to the techs , we should use them as a real barometer of the entire sector's health IMO...KLIC gets 20%+++ from INTC...it should be very instructive to us all... I'll write covereds, buy puts, and play the dark side till I feel different, even though I'm sitting in OEX calls for the possible run up in the next 2-3 weeks...Maybe i'll get lucky.... Mikey the worse is NOT over by a longshot, co's in Jan will warn about the next Q, and so on and so on...it will escalate at a rapid rate...We must look to buy co's in the US, domestically owned and operated...We need to seek those good co's out because THAT'S WHERE THE MONEY WILL FLOW TOO...it's coming out of techs and multinationals, and will dive into good old USA standard bearers, the stogy slow turtle stuff<gggg>>> I wish people would give me some names and I'll do the same... It's been one hellava year for me, despite the major haircut since Sep till now...But I've wised up and collected some preminums on sellin calls & buying puts...it was nice, and will be again... Anyway I've said enough, I wish you a Happy Holiday and a healthy and Happy New Years....KEEP POSTING THE MF ON STOCKS WE FOLLOW MIKEY, VERY VERY IMPORTANT TO ALL OF US...My Warmest Regards, Jerry