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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Graham Osborn who wrote (55573)6/30/2015 12:00:33 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 78783
 
Re: Grahm Number

Paul Senior also pointed out the GN is/was always focused on 10 years of positive EPS. I use a modified version and let 1 or 2 years of losses if it can be explained as truly "one time" and problem is fixed (ie litigation settlement, one time write down due to exiting a business, etc). Management must provide me a pretty good argument for me to allow EPS losses.

I also want the GN value to provide at least a 10% discount to the valuation calculation fair value amount. Finally, I give extra weight to low long term debt and/or historical low PE and/or hidden undervalued assets (especially real estate). I also, discount for goodwill are any other over valued intangible assets.

Most of the time, the market will eventually price the company at/above the GN value and sometimes much higher.

You might want to look at Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN) -NYSE. I still can not quantify what their current litigation cost could be. I sold my position for a small gain and am looking at returning to the position at $25.50/share or lower.

EKS