"""I do not think you should hide your head in the snow and talk about world economy on this thread. Just fly to Asia and do a survey on local economy, I bet you will see people still go to the restaurants, consuming like before."
Ed,
First and formeost, the subscibers on this thread are Ladies and Gentelmen, unless you can prove otherwise! So please take this
"YOU GUYS" attitude to your friend in your next door beer-joint or frontier-bar.
Second, this is a free forum, where we can discuss world economy without the fear of repercussion, censorship, or being told to shut-up
by Mr. Ed. or his kind. If you don't agree, either keep quite or argue kindly. Pls. don't be rude or offensive.
Third, I am imprssed by your latest trip to Seoul restuarants!! But pls. remmber a lot of other people on this thread travel to Far East and have opinions that differ from yours!
Back to Asia, I do not think you do or can understand the depth of the crisis!! You want to tell me that people in Asia go to resturants, and that supposed to mean that all is clear.
I don't know what is your back-ground, but I have been dealing with Korea, Hong Kong and Japan since 1972. I first visited China when bands of students were pushing Chiarman Mao's thoughts into the Forgienr's faces. I travelled from Hong Kong to Paking and upto Urmuci and never saw a hungry Hon Chinese or a resturant that was not croweded. Seeing well fed Chinese didn't mean that the country was not
in termoil!
The fundementals for grouth in Asia are strong, I agree. What we are talking about here is the crisis that could effect the value of our investments in the next two to three years, to be on the optimistic side. As much as I like, I can go on dreaming that the last year miracle with INTC or CPQ will be repeated with posting a good 4th Quarter. I sincerely hope I be proved wrong!!
There are writtings all over the wall that this crisis is at the early stage, and more is to come. If you haven't seen it during yuor visit
to the Far East, maybe its becasue you havn't looked in the right places!
Yesterday Hi-tech had its worse day in 10 years on the US equity markets. In the meanshile Tokyo lost 5.5% (dropping to , Seoul 5.13%, London 2.65% .
Only two days ago the of the United States pricks-up the phone and
calls the out going and incoming Korean Presidents of South Korea suggesting to them to accept the IMF package, becasue thier haggling with the IMF could worsen the crisis that could effect the world economy! I don't think Mr.Clinton habitually calls heads of the States and asks them to accept a loan if crisis was not serious!)
Allan Sinai, the well-known economist and consultant to the US Congress in his last week report to the US Congress warns that in 1988 becasue of the Asian crisis the grouth of US Pil will be effected by 0.5%.
Major Swiss and Banking instiutions and money managers have pulled out nearlly 150 billion US dollars in the past two months out of the US equity market and invested in TB's, zero-coupons and other investment grade bonds becasue they fear the negative effect of the Asian crisis on the US stock market. The Swiss bank Corporation expects the worse
yet to come and futhre dis-investment in the US equity market will
to follow before the end of 1997, as per Finnancail Times of London.
As for Boeing and Aisa. 72% of all 10 billion dollar sales Boeing posted last year comes from Asia. Being prdicts 300 billion dollar out of 1 trillion dollar it hopes to sell in the next 20 years will come from Asia. Although 6 months has past since the first signs of Asians Crisis, Boeing is still doing good business, although as Companies
President Harry Stonecipher, they expect Ailines in Asia to order 20
fewer planes in the next three years. Boeing planners assume a 40 percent drop in economic activities in the four affected countires
in Asia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Kroea. That would
trasnlate 33 percent fallout in orders! So far, Cathy Pacific has offcially decalred that they want to dely orders and Guarda Indonesian
Airline can't find money to pick-up the plane they have ordered, as
per Wahington Post reports.
So, you tell me the companies that are flooding American high-ways with their cars can not fail?? We just had Japan's biggest food comapny, Toshuko, the nations's third largest corporation fails, citing a debit of 5.5 billion dollars, or 639.5 billion yen. DJIA dived 269 points, its biggest drop since a 557 point drop on Oct. 27th. This bankrupcy came right after failures of two Japanese banks
and two borkerage houses, including Yamaichi Securities Co. once
Japan's 4ht largest brokerage house. Japnese banks are not helping the
situtation by refuisng to make lones and this may well push more Japnese giants into insolvency. So, what makes you think NEC, or
Tayota are byond danger!
Moody Investors Services have wanrned that Sakura Bank Lt. Japans
forth largest bank is in trouble and could have their debit down-graded.
The Asian crisis yesterday wighted heavily on other markets in Europe.
Moscow major index lost 5% following a watning by the S&P Corp. that
the Russian currency rating maybe lowered to BB becasue Russia was
vulnurable to changes in investors confidence!
Last night, Mr. kim, Korean President, in his frist day as the presidnet said Korea has two very diificult years ahead of itself
if the country is going to pull out of this crisis!!
As investors we are all concerned about what is taking place to our
investments and lives savings, we have to rest sure that all is well becasue Mr. Ed!! is telling us ingorant people on this thread, that all is well becasue he saw Asians eat in resturants! |
