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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: E_K_S who wrote (55589)7/1/2015 3:08:35 PM
From: bruwin  Respond to of 78658
 
"This is a good one to keep on your candidate Buy list."

I'd tend to agree with you in terms of keeping an eye on TRN.

From what one sees in its financials all seems to be going quite well ...
Last 3 Annuals show regular increases in all important areas.

Bearing in mind all the "distractions" regarding litigations, its latest Quarterly shows good increases in Gross Profit, Operating Income and Net Income. So the latter also improves its Balance Sheet.

For my 5c worth, wouldn't be too preoccupied by book value. Only comes into play if TRN liquidates, which is unlikely.

This could well turn out to be a case of Buying when others are "fearful" ....

QUARTERLY RESULTS :-

Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN)

-NYSE

26.37 0.06(0.23%) 2:19PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price


Period Ending

Mar 31, 2015

Dec 31, 2014

Sep 30, 2014

Jun 30, 2014

Total Revenue

1,626,700

1,661,400

1,562,800

1,485,300

Cost of Revenue

1,211,100

1,275,300

1,172,200

1,098,300

Gross Profit

415,600

386,100

390,600

387,000

Operating Expenses

Research Development

-

-

-

-

Selling General and Administrative

98,300

110,600

113,000

96,400

Non Recurring

-

-

-

-

Others

-

-

-

-

Total Operating Expenses

-

-

-

-

Operating Income or Loss

333,100

276,500

281,200

302,000

Income from Continuing Operations

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

18,600

3,200

5,000

13,800

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

335,900

278,700

282,600

304,400

Interest Expense

51,500

52,000

48,200

46,900

Income Before Tax

284,400

226,700

234,400

257,500

Income Tax Expense

95,400

80,300

78,100

83,900

Minority Interest

(8,800)

(8,100)

(7,500)

(8,900)

Net Income From Continuing Ops

180,200

146,400

156,300

180,200

Non-recurring Events

Discontinued Operations

-

(100)

600

(500)

Extraordinary Items

-

-

-

-

Effect Of Accounting Changes

-

-

-

-

Other Items

-

-

-

-

Net Income

180,200

138,200

149,400

164,200

==========================================














ANNUAL RESULTS :-


View: Annual Data | Quarterly DataAll numbers in thousands
Dec 31, 2014Dec 31, 2013Dec 31, 2012
Period Ending
Total Revenue6,170,000 4,365,300 3,811,900
Cost of Revenue4,619,800 3,322,300 3,051,500
Gross Profit1,550,200 1,043,000 760,400
Operating Expenses
Research Development- - -
Selling General and Administrative403,600 291,300 224,100
Non Recurring- - -
Others- - -
Total Operating Expenses- - -
Operating Income or Loss1,251,000 772,900 574,800
Income from Continuing Operations
Total Other Income/Expenses Net110,900 26,100 44,300
Earnings Before Interest And Taxes1,257,500 777,800 580,600
Interest Expense193,400 187,300 194,700
Income Before Tax1,064,100 590,500 385,900
Income Tax Expense354,800 204,400 134,000
Minority Interest(31,100)(16,900)1,500
Net Income From Continuing Ops709,300 386,100 251,900
Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations- 6,300 1,800
Extraordinary Items- - -
Effect Of Accounting Changes- - -
Other Items- - -
Net Income678,200 375,500 255,200



To: E_K_S who wrote (55589)7/1/2015 6:15:23 PM
From: Graham Osborn1 Recommendation

Recommended By
E_K_S

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78658
 
I dunno EKS, I’m loving TRN less on second look. That of course is the herd mentality after a big drop for a cyclical, but then if everyone else feels the same way it might come true:



I guess I’m downplaying the guardrail investigation as a price driver c/w industry sentiment:



As far as the margin of safety, I’m being conservative and (1) assuming the $663M will be paid in full (2) assuming with class action and other payments net cost could round up to 1B. With tangible book at 2.4B, that leaves 1.4B or $9/ sh. As to earnings, TRN’s growth was primarily driven by the energy boom, which should have some tail whatever the long-term pricing outlook. If they get a bump from the railcar replacement rules that’s upside. But I don’t see it as reasonable to assume earnings will continue to grow at comparable rates for the next 5 years, and they may well fall given they have a lot of CapEx baggage built in. So I’m taking last 5-year average EPS of $1.90 to factor in some tail but keep my MOS. So my GN is $20/ sh. And if the business really hit the tubes I’d accept tbook of $9/ sh. That’s being a bit generous in a downturn:



Anyway, I’ll keep on eye on it and maybe pick some up if it shows decent support around $20 for a month or 2. But as for GHM I'll have a short trigger.



To: E_K_S who wrote (55589)7/7/2015 10:31:23 AM
From: Graham Osborn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78658
 
Hi EKS, I was over on VIC yesterday and it looks like TRN is one of their "most posted" picks. Should that bother us? I'll still pick up a bit at $20 if I can get.