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US: 100% conversion to wind, water and solar power by 2050 feasible, PV to account for 38%
02. July 2015
In a new study by Stanford University, a solid financial, technical and economical case for the U.S to convert its all-purpose energy systems to ones powered by wind, water and sunlight (WWS) has been made. Based on their calculations, the authors say solar PV could account for 38% of power generation in 2050, and create up to 2.3 million jobs.
The findings of the study, " 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States," published in the journal of Energy & Environmental Science, urge the U.S. to convert 80 to 85% of its all-purpose energy systems to ones powered by WWS by 2030, and 100% by 2050.
"…Conversions are technically and economically feasible with little downside," write the research team, led by Mark Z. Jacobson, a Stanford University professor, which adds, "These roadmaps may therefore reduce social and political barriers to implementing clean-energy policies."
Furthermore, the researchers say that the conversion to WWS – onshore wind, offshore wind, utility-scale PV, rooftop PV, CSP with storage, geothermal, wave, tidal and hydro – should stabilize energy prices, since fuel costs will be eliminated. They calculate that each person in the U.S. could save an average of US$260 annually, with individual U.S. health and global climate costs decreasing by an average of $1,500 and $8,300 per year, respectively. Minimal land is also required for the conversion.
Solar’s contribution
Solar PV and concentrated solar power (CSP), combined, could account for over 45% of power generation in the U.S. in 2050. PV alone could account for 38%, comprising 4% residential rooftop, 3.2% commercial/government rooftop and 30.8% utility-scale.
To meet these goals, the study says 75 million new residential rooftop PV systems would need to be installed, and 46,480 utility-scale plants. See table below for further information:
Energy technology
| Rated power one plant (MW)
| % of 2050 all-purpose load met by plant
| Nameplate capacity of existing plus new plants (MW)
| % nameplate capacity already installed 2013
| No. of new plants needed for U.S.
| % of U.S. land area for footprint of new plants
| % of U.S. land area for spacing of new plants
| Residential roof PV
| 0.005
| 3.98
| 379,500
| 0.94
| 75,190,000
| 0.03070
| 0
| Com/gov roof PV
| 0.1
| 3.24
| 276,500
| 0.64
| 2,747,000
| 0.02243
| 0
| Solar PV plant
| 50
| 30.73
| 2,326,000
| 0.08
| 46,480
| 0.18973
| 0
| Utility CSP plant
| 100
| 7.30
| 227,300
| 0
| 2,273
| 0.12313
| 0
|
Between 356,940 and 3.6 million jobs could be created in the solar PV industry alone, continues the study. Overall, it calculates that 100% conversion to WWS by 2050 would create between 876,275 and 4.8 million jobs, while job losses from the fossil fuel and nuclear energy sectors would total 3.9 million.
Costs
The researchers also estimated fully annualized levelised business costs for WWS electric power generators versus non-WWS conventional fuel generators, taking into account both low cost, high benefit (LCHB) and high cost low benefit (HCLB) scenarios. See the table below for their cost assumptions for solar PV in 2050:
| Technology year 2013 (US$/kWh delivered)
| Technology year 2050 (US$/kWh delivered)
| Technology
| LCHB
| HCLB
| Average
| LCHB
| HCLB
| Average
| PV utility crystalline tracking
| 0.073
| 0.107
| 0.090
| 0.061
| 0.091
| 0.076
| PV utility crystalline fixed
| 0.078
| 0.118
| 0.098
| 0.063
| 0.098
| 0.080
| PV utility thin film tracking
| 0.073
| 0.104
| 0.089
| 0.061
| 0.090
| 0.075
| PV utility thin film fixed
| 0.077
| 0.118
| 0.098
| 0.062
| 0.098
| 0.080
| PV commercial rooftop
| 0.098
| 0.164
| 0.131
| 0.072
| 0.122
| 0.097
| PV residential rooftop
| 0.130
| 0.225
| 0.177
| 0.080
| 0.146
| 0.113
|
First steps
To realize the goal of 100% WWS by 2050 in the U.S., the study recommends a number of first steps. These include expanding both renewable energy and energy efficiency resource standards, the promotion of energy efficiency building measures and revising building codes as and when new technologies become available.
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) should also be increased, and WWS production tax credits extended and/or devised, while permitting processes for small-scale solar and wind installations should be simplified.
Both home and community storage and utility-scale grid storage systems need to be incentivized, and virtual net metering implemented for small-scale energy systems. Meanwhile, utilities should be required to utilize demand response grid management so as to reduce the need for short-term energy backup on the grid.
In-state fossil fuel and nuclear power plants should be retired under "enforceable commitments" and the permit approval process for WWS power generators and high- capacity transmission lines streamlined.
By implementing such changes, and halting the construction of new coal, nuclear, natural gas, or biomass fired power plants by 2020, the study’s authors argue that it is feasible to convert to 100% of WWS power conversion in the U.S. by 2050.
"Based on the scientific results presented, current barriers to implementing the roadmaps are neither technical nor economic. As such, they must be social and political," state the authors.
They conclude by saying, "The timeline for conversion is proposed as follows: 80–85% of all energy to be WWS by 2030 and 100% by 2050. If this timeline is followed, implementation of these plans and similar ones for other countries worldwide will eliminate energy-related global warming; air, soil, and water pollution; and energy insecurity."
A separate study has addressed grid integration issues.
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