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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott Shumaker who wrote (5784)	12/20/1997 9:05:00 AM
From: Iceberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

> In reference to this sectors continuous downtrend > large institutional holdings and Fidelity ContraFund starting to sell > the blood letting may still not be over > These guys are killing it. When they move, they ARE the market > if we are entering into a bear market, which I think we are >the best sector may do well just to stay even Scott, Here's an observation I've made that seems eerily consistent with your assessment. I pulled up 6-month daily charts for the following 35 stocks: ATW BJS CAM CDG DIVE DO DPSI DWSN EGEO ESV EVI FGII FLC GLBL GLM HAL KEG LSS MDCO MDR NE OLOG PDE PESC PKD RB RDC RIG SESI SII SLB SNY TDW UTI and WII. Scanning from one chart to the next shows an undeniable pattern. That is, something happened during [approximately] the first week in Oct, the first week in Nov and the first week in Dec. During those 3 time periods, these stocks got hit in 1, 2 or in all 3 of these time periods, creating peaks in the chart patterns. SNY is one that shows the pattern clearly. I don't know how funds unload their holdings in terms of timing, but it seems to me to be more than coincidence that all these stocks - almost without exception - show such a similar pattern. And not only is the pattern evident, but it seems to be systematic...in that during the first week or so of the past three months, prices plunged. Not that history necessarily repeats itself, but I do wonder - will the first week or so in Jan bring on another wave of selling - thereby creating another peak? Is there indeed something systematic going on? Possibly by funds, as you say? If not, then how can it be explained otherwise? To the extent that charts reflect the market, I would have to say that something nasty is going on with this sector. Something I don't understand, except in in terms of what you've just outlined. Yours is as good an explanation as any, at least that I can see from my perspective. Thanks for your post. Ice

To: Scott Shumaker who wrote (5784)	12/20/1997 11:41:00 PM
From: chirodoc	Respond to of 95453

Pessimism pervails in the oil patch....... <<<<<. In other words, who's big enough to counter this kind of downward pressure, how long will it take for the market to absorb this volume being unloaded, and who's going to drive it back up? .....earnings that what will counter the selling. when the multinational companies and high techs show earnings slowdowns you will see people looking for somewhere to put their money--the drillers will be one of the safe havens in this market. watch--if the big drillers meet or exceed profit expectations, you will see people rush to buy in again. .....you are dead wrong about japan. <<<<<<<< Their best sectors still got clobbered, and haven't recovered yet. .......look at industry leaders like honda, sony, fuji, etc. in spite of the huge bear market, they have done quite well. when the bull returns watch for those stocks to be rockets. why are they doing so well? one word--consistent earnings! same as the drillers!