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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (2829)	12/20/1997 1:10:00 PM
From: Ron Bower	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78743

Mike and Jeff, Great discussion. I had been thinking about these things two months ago when I made posts about building cash and revising thinking about this market. I've stopped trading, totally revised my market strategy, put monies into a good place, and am thinking long term. IMO- The US is in the early phases of a deflationary cycle. Interest rates will be lowered by the FED. Bonds will be falling due to the money flow. We will slowly see a weakening of the dollar. We will see a bear market on the DOW and S&P and all stocks selling at lower PEs. There will be more emphasis on the small and mid caps because the larger stocks are so overvalued. Companies that have made major expansions this past year, particularly those that added debt, will have the largest problems because they've failed to plan for a poor economy. We're entering a new period of corporate restructuring with the poorly managed companies weeded out. It is no longer a time to speculate on the market and a time to lock monies into long term investments. Companies with strong balance sheets and proven management. More than ever, a time to be in Value Stocks and forget about playing the games of the last couple of years. I'd forget about diversification and get into a few really well researched companies that can ride things out, however long it lasts. JMHO, Ron

To: Michael Burry who wrote (2829)	12/20/1997 3:38:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78743

Mike: Yeah. I still own Penney over Nike. Lot of negatives on Penney in press lately though. (Always negatives - just maybe a little more frequent now -g-) Like others, I too am raising cash - primarily reducing and rebalancing some overweighted positions. But as I have posted, I am finding what I perceive as values, and I am buying them now. I've sought out posted suggestions and screening lists which purport to give Buffet stocks. Mostly they're off base IMO, but great fun. People without a clue or only maybe a clue -g- or maybe I don't have a clue (LOL). Based on my past experience, I probably will have to let Buffett stock come to me. Paul