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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (11964)	12/20/1997 1:06:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Joan, I was keeping a 25 day moving sum of the advance-decline numbers on a daily basis in 1987. That is, the sum of the advances of the most recent 25 days minus the sum of the declines of the same 25 days. Each day I would add that difference to the sum and subtract out the now 26th day. It was an on going sum difference for 25 days. What I found was that the sum went negative around October 10th or so, about a week and 1/2 before the Friday and Monday crashes. GZ

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (11964)	12/20/1997 2:02:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Joan, Here's some weekly forecast information. I have been frustrated not having a "current" indicator which gives a solid, conservative view of the current situation so I tried putting one together this morning. I was able to provide the following market calls... not particularly exciting as far as timing, but the are fair calls as far as where the market is headed when the indicator changes: - Going into 1987 the market was on a BUY. - the week of Mar 3rd, became a sell. - the week of April 28th, became a buy. - the week of Aug 11th, became a sell. - the week of Sept 1st, became a buy. - the week of Oct 13 became a sell and is currently on a sell. To complicate things a little further, we are still on a VIX "Unified" buy meaning the market should get 5% above Dec 11ths price or at least to a 8,200 peak. However, we are also on a partial VIX sell... meaning we could go lower before going higher. To FURTHER complicate matters, my Barron's based indicators show the market is bullish for this coming week overall but BEARISH for each and every day. When I have seen such a hodge podge of signals, both up and down, it has usually signalled a very active week with little progress by week's end. BUT NOT ALWAYS. And I'll see your interest rate and raise you employment data in 1998 and SEA in 1997. JUST BE VERY CAREFUL THIS WEEK!!! Bill PS My newly developed CURRENT indicator includes A/D as one of it's inputs... there are actually 6 inputs into it: % over 200 day MA, % over 40 day MA, A/D, DJ, VGY and NAZ.

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (11964)	12/20/1997 2:15:00 PM
From: kas1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Joan and Bill... may I play a bit of devil's advocate? >I have been looking at the old DOW topping out charts also. Why this fascination with the Dow? As we saw on Friday, DJIA does not represent the market as a whole. All the quality tech stocks were strongly up, even as the Dow was down 200+ points. Does anyone really care about GM or Woolworth anymore? I propose that the usefulness of the Dow as a real gauge of the market -- and the companies/stocks that really matter -- is precisely zero. The only role the Dow plays is that it's a relatively arbitrary number quoted on the evening news, that perhaps affects amateur-level perceptions of the market. As such, however, we should be discussing DJIA as a sentiment indicator (or a sentiment determinant), not as a true market gauge. As usual -- BWDIK? I'm recovering from gum surgery this weekend, and I think the codeine puts me in a combatitive mood. :-)