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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (11969)	12/20/1997 2:24:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, can you post you Point & Figure chart?? It should be easy. Check out SPX as it better represents the market. Thanks Haim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (11969)	12/20/1997 9:45:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill ; bear with me on this and why I think TA can be off when it comes to an index particularly the DOW. Here are all 30 DJI symbles in the order of their market cap. GE KO XON MRK MO PG T IBM GT JNJ WMT DIS DD HWP TRV CHV BA GM AXP MMM MCD ALD JPM EK CAT S UTX IP AA UK ------------------------------------------- NOW note this GE has a market cap of 238.9 BILLION..while UK has only .5 Billion.. KEEP in mind the DOW is not weighted, or not in the normal sence..however it is weighted by what you would have to invest to buy the individul issues the way they have it set up..right now the ratio would be 3.9875637 shares of each one..so the ones that cost more would make you invest more in them..but no matter what the price or market cap is of an issue..if one moves up or down 10pts saying nothing else changed..a cheap one small cap one has the same effect on the index as a high large cap one in that way the index itself is misleading..at times it pure garbage..TA-ing it you chart packaged garbage.. I'v set up my own index same, stocks..but weighted them , one invested by price..( short term indicator ). The other is weighted by market cap ( much more reliable ) as to the money flow. I love the Dow index..and hope they keep it screwed up like they got it..but keep in mind any stock in it cheap, small cap or other wise changes the index ( at this time )..by multiplying the change of price x time .2507797 and this says damm little in the way of truth of whats happening if GE goes up 1 or UK goes up one..the index changes the same for both, in spite of the fact that 1 pt up on GE..can mean 400 times money flowed into the DOW than if UK went up one, the index does not tell you that. THe real kick is GE can go down 1, ( on large volume ) while UK goes up 1 on next to nothing volume..and the stupid index don't move what if UK went up 2 the same deal with GE..will the index would go up showing large volume.. at the same time tons of money was running out. TA can not show that.."not on an index"..( unless you make your own ) and I'v found weighting by market cap a must if I'm going to chart the thing. Tossing a groupe in a pot like a stew..and even weighting by price..is no way to TA. I have seen the DOW at 7760 two differn't times..yet one time it was down over 650 billion dollars more than the other..right now it's sitting at 7756.29 ( really 7756.20 ) they made a nine cent mistake..however it has about 687.87 Billion more dollars in it than it did in OCT 24th when it was about the same, just before that 27Th sell off, so it might be saying the same but it's healthier than it was back then.., the ones that took the hits and havent cimbed back yet were more on the small cap side of the DOW..had it been more on the big side I would then consider that as on going bearish, I kinda think we have or are putting in a base, and our bear market was a mini one. Jan looks up to me, unless the dollar falls. on the other hand them that were invested via market cap have a lot of profits they could take out..since Oct. I have not trailed her back enough to understand their habits in that respect..but what will they do with thoes profits, interset rates are not paying enough to drag them into bonds. Jim