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To: LLCF who wrote (4034)12/20/1997 5:14:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Respond to of 10921
 
DAK,

1. Most of the US GDP is internal.> Has this stopped recessions in the past?

It causes me to have less concern about turmoil in SEA than I would have if most of the GDP was based upon trade with that region.

5. Productivity from innovative use of technology continues to exceed both trend and expectations.> Hasnt this always been the case?

No, I believe that below trend and below expectation productivity occurred from the 70s until approximately 1990.

Schumpeter described this phenomenon. It has taken a couple decades in previous revolutionary changes for the new technology to be applied effectively. I believe that the "golden age" of computing and communications is only now starting. ... in the grander scheme of things. But that's not new to most on this thread.

Ian.