To: Robert E. Bruss who wrote (4699 ) 12/21/1997 2:57:00 AM From: Gil Gilbertson Respond to of 19080
I will be more than willing to let others who know the technicalities of Oracle write on those issues, that is not my forte. I will read everything and I will learn all that I can. I do however have 40 years in marketing and motivation and believe I know a little bit about markets , what makes people tick and about our free enterprise system. Having said that, we must learn the hard way that nothing in this world has any value except that value percieved in the mind of human experience. You can quote all the basics, all of the technical superiorities, fact and figures you can assemble, but in the end a price is determined by someone buying and someone selling. When the overall perception is positive to an extreme that is when we should be thinking in terms of basic valuation and subsequently move from equity which is valued by one set of standards to a more stable value of dollars. That isn't to say currency is any different. As we just witnessed in Asia, the perceived value of currency can also change when the holders thereof percieve diminishing value. But right now, the currency of the U.S.A. is perceived to be of highest value. At the high extreme of equity valuation, something occurs such as Asia and this shakes or destroys the perception of value in those owning equities affected. They then move rapidly into a position they feel secure in, either bonds, dollars or even gold. This starts out slowly, (a top) and starts to feed on itself until it winds up in a panic selloff and people perceive an equity value to finally be greater than the dollars they are holding and the scales tip to buying and the cycle starts over again. Oracle and the other tech stocks just reached this point where people now are starting to perceive the value of these equities as greater than the dollars available. The part that I have not been able to ascertain because we are dealing alongside the most brilliant and influentially minds in the world, is how much of these little scenarios is rigged, or manipulated. Obviously someone put Billions and Billions of dollars into tech stock last week as the less stable minds dumped in panic. What we do as investors is try to compete in this scenario for a profit by reading human nature as well as balance sheets and riding the waves. I have moments of ecstacy and moments of fear as I observe my capital play in the market place, I say that, because it is a game, a very serious game with bigger stakes than Las vegas ever dreamed of. Thanks to this medium of communication it will now grow to unbelievable proportions and we will have more opportunities than ever. That is why I believe some of the best minds in the world contrive these selloffs to frankly scare the hell (or the stock) out of less skilled investors. But play the game we must, we are hooked and it is life at its best.... Hell yes, buy Oracle, Applied Materials, Ascend, American Power Conversion, and dont forget the beneficiaries of the internet, Ameritrade, Telescan, Etrade, thats where we will be playing in the future....YankeeGils Sunday Sermon....have a good week..