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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SMALL FRY who wrote (13709)	12/20/1997 9:19:00 PM
From: jbershad	Respond to of 70976

I am not an expert on this by any means. As far as I can see there is nothing new here. Thoughts from others? Jerry

To: SMALL FRY who wrote (13709)	12/21/1997 9:54:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

SF, By no means am I an expert on this, and would welcome opposing/correcting viewpoints. IMO, most of the news regarding delays in DRAM plants are in the stock. This news really should not come as a surprise to anyone. DRAM spot prices have been plunging over the past few months and if I was a DRAM producer, I would think twice before buliding a potentially $-losing Fab. That being said, it is old news for the most part and should not have caught anyone offguard. However, DRAM spending as a % of AMAT's revs. has been falling dramatically. I believe it now accounts for 40% of capex. purchases for AMAT, down significantly from '95. As this continues to fall and logic/ASIC becomes a larger %, I believe the Street will begin to expect this trend to continue. So any upturn in DRAM spending should be a + surprise to everyone when it happens. It inevitably will- it's really just a question of when. There were expectations of a firming DRAM market in late '98, now probably pushed back until '99. Any thoughts/comments appreciated, Brian