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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4045)	12/20/1997 9:56:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Respond to of 10921

To the board, the following article is an example of the dynamics of the year 2000 problem. The US stock market could possibly begin to discount the magnitude of this problem near the end of calendar 1998. IMHO this problem could effect corporate profits in a big way that the stock market is not currently discounting. The estimated costs of this problem nationally could be enough to cause a 20% correction in the long term raging bull! **************************************************************** Survey Says One In Five Companies Working On Y2K Fix (12/19/97; 7:09 p.m. EST) By Andy Patrizio, TechWeb <Picture>Despite numerous cover stories in the high-tech media, even in Newsweek and USA Today, the year 2000 code problem appears not to be a top priority for most IS managers. A survey of 108 companies across 14 industries conducted by Cap Gemini, a consultancy that specializes in year 2000 code correction work, has found only 20 percent have begun a full-blown strategy to bring their systems up to date compliance for the turn of the century. Only 33 percent of the companies have a detailed plan in place to deal with a code-correction problem. But some have had no choice, because the survey also found that 7 percent of the companies have already suffered some kind of date code-related problem or failure. Next year is the last chance for companies to get serious about the problem, according Jim Woodward, senior vice president of Cap Gemini's TransMillenium Services unit. "When we get to Jan. 1, 1999, there will be so many systems that deal with one-year projections of dates that we'll have real fireworks," he said. "Maybe that'll get people serious, but unfortunately, if that's what it took, by then it'll be too late." As a way of comparison, Woodward said around 600 small businesses went under during the two-week United Parcel Service strike in September. A year 2000 project takes a lot longer to fix than two weeks, and the federal government is in worse shape than any of the industries he's surveyed. What it boils down to is people not taking the problem seriously, and they're now starting to pay the price for it, Woodward said. "I think from the beginning, this issue had things going against it," he said. "It's hard to believe it could cause this much trouble. Second, it has no business value. It's hard for management to divert funds from more strategic initiatives to fix this. And on top of the whole thing is this cloak of silence, being concerned of the impact of talking about what's going on." The lackadaisical attitude toward the year 2000 problem is coming around to bite people when they begin the project. Cap Gemini found 82 percent of the companies that have begun a renovation effort underestimated the amount of time and money that would be needed for the project. More than 70 percent of the companies have been forced to increase their staff. Companies are also moving their money around and canceling or postponing initiatives at an increased rate to work on a year 2000 fix, Woodward said. This slows the enhancements to existing systems. Some companies are getting the message, and Cap Gemini has seen an increase in its business in the past quarter, Woodward said. But something else is increasing: the tendency to cut corners during testing. Because a year 2000 effort is not viewed as something that will make money, pressure will be on to cut the budget. "There isn't enough involvement from upper management on this issue even today," said Woodward. "Without someone policing this, the pressure to cut the budget is likely to increase the chance of cutting corners."

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4045)	12/20/1997 9:58:00 PM
From: ForYourEyesOnly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jay, thank you. I look forward to sharing ideas on purchase timing as the day approaches. I will try to keep my distance from the market, and remember the words, "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes!" I have a good amount of dry powder here, and I want to hold onto it until THAT DAY COMES. Cash is king when the blood flows. Memory uptick of 50%? Do you have any historical charts of memory prices that we can use to confirm the past timing of these moves? I think we have just seen a 50% downtick, and the blood has most likely just started to flow, so I think we are far from the uptick you speak of. The Taiwanese don't like to lose money, and are trying to move DRAM capacity to foundry work, but I don't believe that that will be an easy transition. I look forward to your future postings. Thanks again.... THC