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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3970)	12/20/1997 10:37:00 PM
From: Gary Strike	Respond to of 23519

BigK...I am not part of the medical profession...I don't know the credibility of Dr. G,... and I don't know if all of the recent reports on alternative remedies are valid. The things that I know for sure are that my pharmacist confirms the sales of MUSE, it dominates the current market, VVUS is gearing up for a major consumer roll-out, and ever since the conference call the stock has been going up. There appears to be a significant outside interest in trying to reverse that trend. I will continue to hold my long position and look for opportunities to buy more on any dips. Good luck with your own position.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (3970)	12/21/1997 6:51:00 AM
From: James Baker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

Here is my take on the Barron's article - my response ot BigKNY on AOL MF boards: ******************************************** *<<<Instead of accusing people of various conspiracies, why not explain what you feel was unfair about the article? BigKNY3>>> [Note: someone else was accusing of cosspiracies I just think the article is biased and therefore unfair "journalism".] OK, here goes......... "Impotence drug gets off to a fast start but falters in the face of competition" This may or may not be true. Certainly there is no new competition that is FDA approved and on the market. Is the expectatio of Viagra the problem as you suggest by your percentage decline calculations since FDA fast track announcement? Well is also now appears that the manufacturing slow down, moving a production line, needed maintenance all be becoming known about this same time. These are real and as management now says failed production will impact product availability for sales this month and next before Viagra even sees the light of day. "Despite Wall Street's enthusiasm for the stock, Barron's was skeptical (February 12), noting that rival impotence drugs in pill form were on the way and that MUSE didn't always live up to expectations. Well, we were right. Vivus shares are now down to 12." Don't break your arm Barron's patting yourself on the back. Warning of competition at least 15 months before V will be marketed. What will they have to say about the ability of Viagra to "live up to expectations"??? I don't think that V can match MUSE in success ratio. "Adding to the stock's problems, the company warned on December 10 that sales in the current quarter will fall about 25% short of expectations. " They don't bother here to state up front that PRODUCTION is said to be the reason for the shortfall. "On a conference call with irate investors, the firm's executives explained that a factory expansion project had gone awry and hobbled the existing production line. On that call, analysts asked if the factory snafu was just an alibi for flagging demand-perhaps because patients were discovering some of MUSE's limitations." I did not listen to the CC but no one here on on SI indicated that there were "IRATE INVESTORS" participating in the call. Were there??? Someone out there fill me in here. "Indeed, it seems clear that the flow of new MUSE customers has slowed. Dr. James H. Barada, a professor of surgery and a practitioner at the Albany, New York, Center for Male Sexual Health, says that his patient traffic expanded by more than 30% in the months after MUSE was approved for use last January, but his patient count has now leveled off. Publicity about the new treatment had created unrealistic hopes in patients, says Barada, who adds that experience has shown MUSE works about half as frequently as do injections, and MUSE produces an erection that's "not necessarily a broomstick." " Barada is a Urologist - they don't even get that info right/complete. "patient count has now leveled off" he did not say declined! Caverject works in 80-90% of ED patients. So MUSE works in 40-45% - probably no too far off the mark. Original studies suggest it may be as high as 60%. ""Prescriptions are flat to down over the last several months," acknowledges David Yntema, Vivus's chief financial officer. After peaking at about 17,000 new prescriptions in the week of March 14, new MUSE prescriptions have flattened at around 10,000 a week, although refills have risen steadily to a recent range of 4,500-5,000 a week. " Vivus has never discussed RX numbers before. I don't know if these are accurate quotes from CFO or not. If not he and the Co certainly need to reply. But let's assume that they are correct - then the refill rate is about 50% FAR HIGHER than Vivus has ever been given credit for in the past. Is this the result of the terrible clinical perforamnce that the article over all tries to portray???? That's enough to make MUSE quite a successful drug launch, piling up sales of $100 million for the nine months ended September, and earning Vivus $31 million, or 86 cents a share. Yes it is - thank you very much. But those profits were made possible in part by 71% gross margins, an impressive spread that Vivus attained in part through the use of raw material that cost the drug company nothing in 1997. Footnotes to Vivus's year-end 1996 annual report said the company had about $10 million worth of inventory on hand that Vivus had previously expensed. The margin enhancement from that $10 million in zero-cost materials must have been meaningful, given that Vivus's remaining cost-of-sales for the first nine months of this year was $30 million. Yntema confirms that Vivus used up some of that raw material, but he says the company still holds a portion in reserve. This is news to me. But like tax loss carry forwards and other accounting benefits it is standard practice. No one would ever expect 71% profit margins to continue. We will have to see where they fall out when everything is on a enan production/supply basis and how margins are on product sold thru worldwide partners. Dr. Irwin Goldstein, a urology researcher at Boston University, says that MUSE does work in 20%-50% of patients, but he expects impotence pills like Pfizer's Viagra to take over the market once they get FDA approval. Right now Viagra is on a six-month "fast track" for possible approval by the second quarter of 1998. The big question for MUSE, says Dr. Barada, is whether it will work for patients that are not helped by pills like Viagra. If MUSE won't do the trick for guys who don't respond to Viagra, but injections do work for them, then Barada guesses that MUSE will be "out of the loop." Muse works is 20%??? - certainly this is the lowest figure imaginable. What group has 20%? The NEJM peer reviewed study says 60% where is that for the upper end of the success rate??? V to "take over the market"??? Now would a good reported and article ask the good Dr "WHAT SUCCESS RATE DO YOU EXPECT FROM VIAGRA?"????? Oh you say is will be LOWER than the MUSE rate. And you say it is more likely than organic physical causes of ED are more likely to respond to MUSE than Viagra? An it is anticipated that many patients will be treated with both simultaneously? Will there be side effects of Viagra system treatment for a local problem??? Will there be a long list of contraindications and warnings accompanying the Viagra approval and package insert???? What about multiple medications and interactions???? What about Diabetes, Heart Disease and Hypertension, Depression etc etc in the target population??? Barada raises the question about MUSE working where Viagra fails - but does the reporter ask "How often will that happen?"????? And instead of getting an answer which I estimate to be 1/3 to 1/2 for Viagra failures will be helped by MUSE alone or in combination with Viagra - the reader is left dangling with the prospect that the MUSE bubble has burst and it will drop "out of the loop." The question is legitimate the answer may not be known at this time but the writer choses to put as negative a spin on the Dr's comment as he possibly can. Jim