Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mama Bear who wrote (3668)	12/21/1997 12:23:00 PM
From: David Pawlak	Respond to of 10479

I've been out for the last few days and I finally had a chance to catch up on the boards, just before going to bed I might add. All this talk about FSCO led me to a wierd dream.... I dreamt that Scully, Mulder (from the X-Files) and I were hiding out in a dark New York office right next to FSCO's trading facilites. In the dream, we were monitoring/investigating their operations and following up on the allegations made on the SI board.... Spooky! Back to reality... I recently checked the Bloomberg to see how much trading FSCO really does in FIBR. Over the last few months, (not including Nov.) FSCO really only makes up 1.5 - 4% of the total trading for any month, going back as much as 4 months. (That assumes they report all their trades). I think there are some obvious reasons why this stock is trading where it is: 1)Tax loss selling. 2)Competitors are pre-warning lower than expected earnings. Just about all the networking companies except Cisco have pre-warned. Seems our dissappointment was ahead of the others (Q2 & Q3). With record backlog and the 3 major new products finally hitting the income statement, I don't expect any dissappointments going forward. If the traditional products lag, the new products should pick up the slack (IQX-200, Gigamux, Net Arm). 3)The damage done in the Financial Press. (Barrons, Business Week & London Times). While there are probably over 100 articles from technical trade journals praising their products for every 1 negative article in a financial rag, the latter is what moves the stock in the financial markets. 4)Margin calls. Those who purchased the stock above $5 in their margin accounts know what I'm talking about, especially after the last few weeks, when other holdings have likely gotten smashed. Margin call selling still appears to be having an influence. 5)The chart has looked pretty sick from a technical standpoint, although I am encouraged Friday's action of what appears to be a double bottom on very nice volume. It also filled in that gap that resulted when the company said they would buy back stock. I have also heard unconfirmed rumors that the company was buying back stock at 2 1/8. That would make sense, being that that was the level they said they were interested in buying it in the first place. 6)If you didn't know about the new products and were just introduced to the stock, and assuming the bad press didn't scare you off, one look at the revenue slide might lead someone to a wait and see position. 7)Because of the articles mentioned in #3, Prudential, AG Edwards and Paine Webber clients cannot buy the stock without signing some sort of release form stating that the it was an unsolicited trade. 8)Some of the large firms won't allow clients to buy a stock trading under $3. I was talking to a broker friend last week who had a client who claimed he wanted to buy 10,000 shares but could not because of that reason. By the way, that client was said to be a high level executive from a technology company... He was very impressed with the technology and wanted to take a position. (I'm not sure if he got filled somewhere else or not). Those are the reasons I believe are responsible for the downward pressure (more supply than demand). Most of them are can be wiped away by a few good quarters, which I believe will happen with the sales of the IQX-200 and the Net Arm, as well as the potentially exploding sales of the Gigamux. The reasons I've mentioned above are providing us a unique situation, one like I've never encountered before. I am confident in the company's products, technology and potential. I believe that 6 months from now, after we have significant sales of the Gigamux, we will be looking back and asking why we didn't buy more. I am not trying to suggest buying more, but only pointing out my opinions and thinking here. Do your own research and make your own decisions, but the above are my thoughts and ideas and you can infer what I'll be doing based on them.