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Strategies & Market Trends : Charts With An Attitude; Trading In & Out -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave H who wrote (4391)	12/21/1997 3:30:00 PM
From: Ocote	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4701

What do you think about CNTO? CNTO was a great short when it broke back over its two year trading channel at 41. Now its almost back down to its lower channel which stands at 24. If it breaks through 24 and the long term SMI's look as bad as in 1989, it looks like it would be a sell signal again. Interesting chart. INTC is somehow keeping its head above water, but 4 lower intraday lows in a row.... Volume indicators--PV/NV crossover on 9/5 and retested on 10/28. Have not crossed in 10 years. Only "kissed" in April 1984. This looks very bearish. MA's look terrible: 13d below 30dma below 50dma below 200dma & the 200 dma has now flat and will begin to turn down. The 200 dma seems to be providing resistance now. My chart shows that the neckline of the H & S is now at 71 or so and the close at 70 is below it . I took a small short position on Friday, will add to it if the 200 dma holds or we have a lower high. BTW--now have Parity up and running <g> Ocote

To: Dave H who wrote (4391)	12/21/1997 9:05:00 PM
From: Ocote	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4701

Re: CNTO I've had more time to look at CNTO and read about retracements. I'm a student, so I'm hoping that by sharing my reading with you we can both gain. I think I was in error to think only in terms of the trading range 23-41 during the years 11/96-9/97. According to DeMark(The New Science of Technical Analysis), I should have gone back to the previous time the stock traded at the same high, 1/92, and then look for the lowest low in the ensuing period (5.04). the difference between 5.04 and the high(53.8) determines the fibronacci retracement percentages. The expected percentages are to drop to 61.8%(35.17) of the difference between the high and the low, and if it passes this, to the 33.8%(23.67) level. Since the price gapped throgh the .618 level on 12/17/97, we may be able to consider shorting this one to the .338 level, or to 23.67. If it breaks through 23.67, it could go to the magnet price of 6.625. Interesting stuff, huh? From a fundamental side, its interesting that 12/17 is the day that many downgrades were released and it was disclosed that "Avakine, designed to treat Crohn"s disease and rheumatoid arthritis, increases the likelihood of contracting lymphoma, a type of cancer". "Hambrecht & Quist on Wednesday said it cut its rating on shares of Centocor Inc to hold from buy and its fourth quarter estimate to $0.02 a share from $0.32 a share." If your earnings are going to .02 from .32, are you going to hold or sell? So, from this point of view, CNTO looks like a great short. I'd be interested in your response, or anyone with more expertise lurking out there is encouraged to jump in :'> BTW, what screen did you use to find this one? Ocote