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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Dunlap who wrote (3984)	12/21/1997 3:44:00 PM
From: MisterED	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

The unfair part of the Barron's article is that they try to blame everything on a slower demand for Muse, which are not substantiated by the facts as we know them. The only positive point they make is that refills have steadily risen to a recent range of 4000-5000 a week "enough to make MUSE quite a successful drug launch, piling up sales of $100 million for the nine months earning Vivus $31 million, or 86 cents a share". Then they go on to attack profit margins, which again is not substantiated. With so many promising aspects of Muse, why are these business publications favoring Viagra? At this point we don't know much about it's performance and how it will fare in the marketplace other than what Pfizer tells us or people speculate. Don't let us be naive about the power of PR and what goes on in the media.

To: Don Dunlap who wrote (3984)	12/21/1997 5:37:00 PM
From: Gary Strike	Respond to of 23519

You mean, even experienced management has problems ramping up new factories? We can't appreciate this enough. There are risks at a multitude of fronts: 1. Equipment delivery. How well do you trust your vendors. Will they deliver as promised on time? 2. Contractors for installation. Do we have the right people to install the equipment? Do they have the experience needed for this type? If they're scheduled, will they show up for work? 3. Is the process proven or are there new technologies being put in place? ( I believe this is where VVUS has been bitten. They seem to be implementing some new technology which will increase productivity in the long run). 4. Will the start-up curve go as scheduled? During the start-up, rate of operation starts slow and increases. Yields start out low and also increase. Productivity increases over time as the high priority issues are resolved. All this takes a dedicated technical staff working long hours. They can only give so much before becoming "burnt-out". An experienced operations crew on the start-up team is absolutely essential. IMO, the consumer roll-out sales targets may be bigger than management has revealed to date. They seem to have taken on a significant risk here to install some highly productive equipment.