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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SteveG who wrote (8513)	12/21/1997 8:31:00 PM
From: bill c.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21342

SteveG: >> Estimated ranges are from 25% to 40%. And the bitch is, for the most part, they don't know WHICH 25-40% HAVE the problems, so they need to pretty much test it ALL. << Same problems with ISDN on the bridge taps and load coils. Worse case with your numbers, 60% of the existing plant supports high speed access today. The fact remains that cable is STILL at 10%. So your willing to point to 25-40% of the problems with twisted-pair, but ignore that 90% of the cable plant doesn't support cable access. Not to mention the time required for the cable guy at the house for those 10% of the cable lines that support cable modems. I think DS1 would disagree with your 40% estimate, but I'll go with the flow. Today 60% of the twisted-pair supports ADSL and cable supports 10%. How many YEARS will it take for cable to hit 60% coverage? Let's not forget that Bell Atlantic is migrating to a DLC solution. I'm 5 miles from a Central Office today, but I'm one of the lucky ones that will be 1 mile from a DLC system. I fall into that 25-40% category today,"PS- I have ISDN now", but the DLC system will eliminate the problems you mention. I view it this way... cable needs to fix 90% of it's plant and the telco's need to fix 25-40%, using your numbers. >> And then to FIX a problem once found can take upwards of 50 man-hours. << 25-40% of the lines MAY take 50 man hours... how many man hours will it take for the cable plant to reach 60% coverage? Uncle Bill better have few billion ready. >> ILECs may have to turn around and make all this work and technology available to CLEC competitors at or below their cost. << CLEC's don't get access to the remote DLC system today. The CLEC's better start thinking about working with Bell Atlantic. Bell Atlantic and GTE's tariff information will be arriving in 1Q98. >> Upgrading some plants to DLC is a far cry from testing each residential line for it's ability to handle ADSL. << Bell Atlantic will market 1.5Mbps downstream, lines < 9,000ft from a CO or DLC system will support ~6Mbps. If a customer is < 15,000ft from a DLC/CO you can get 1.5Mbps. Why must every line be tested for ADSL? This is why you have RADSL modems that rate adapt to the highest speed. If it doesn't support ADSL, find the problem, but ~70% of the plant will supports ADSL service. ~70% of the plant does NOT require testing. For some reason you think every line has to be tested before attempting ADSL service.... I disagree. >> AND if it is there, the telcos have to compete with higher speed / cleaner line cable at $40/month. And cable modems look even MORE attractive as they are integrated with the interactive TV experience. << 10% vs 60-70% coverage today. When will the cable plant reach 15%? Please provide a date. Wait for 30% usage in a neighborhood and we will see how fast your cable modem access will become. What do you think of a migration path from ADSL to VDSL. Start by providing 1.5Mbps to 6Mbps and get to VDSL and 50Mbps service. It's a migration path where the telco's will first generate revenue with 1.5Mbps service and build their plants with that revenue. >> Upgrading some plants to DLC is a far cry from testing each residential line for it's ability to handle ADSL. << Each residential line DOESN'T require testing. Please provide where you heard this before... I disagree. DLC systems for the most part are used for customers > 18,000ft from a Central Office. Run a fiber to the DLC, and bypass those manhole covers, load coils, etc. How many hours does if require to run fiber to a DLC system? Cable needs to run this type of solution to 90% of their existing plant today. Having 10% coverage is a FAR cry from 60%-70% coverage, and BILLIONS of dollars and man hours to close the gap. >> What would you have said in Dec of '96 if someone told you how many ADSL lines would be installed in a year? <<< Hopefully Uncle Bill will invest a few additional billion to get the cable plant to 15% coverage. This is actually GOOD news for Westell.. cable modems MAY FINALLY place the needed pressure on the RBOC's. If cable modem access was at 1millions users today, ADSL would be deployed now. Lack of competition from cable doesn't help Westell. >> And with the billions being poured in by Uncle Bill, how long until we hit 1MM cable modems? << Could you please answer that question. Do you understand that Westell actually wants cable to hit 1 million users?L... until later.