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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (112974)	8/19/2015 4:19:38 PM
From: stsimon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217916

As I have said before, it could get very ugly in September and/or October.

To: elmatador who wrote (112974)	8/19/2015 9:25:42 PM
From: THE ANT	4 Recommendations Recommended By 3bar elmatador Gemlaoshi Snowshoe Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217916

At 0% rates for the next 10 years stocks are not that overvalued, they just are at least fully valued.Of course they could fall 30% in a panic but then at 0% rates they might be a buy.Houses are 50% overvalued but still not likely to crash for the same reason.Its just that assets are going no where for a long long time.Still stocks trading at 5-7 X earnings in select fields will do much better than upcoming 2% 30 year bond yields.Vossila will do fine buying the few houses left at 50% of the cost to replicate and making 15% rent/cost returns but most other house buyers will not.Commodities outside of gold to fall until we are clearly in a recession but then likely rise over time as FED tries to inflate and only manages to inflate what we need versus what we own.Wages will not rise as stagnant financials and housing(as assets will not rise) will keep a lid on wages.The lack of much inflation will make 3.5% 30 year mortgages and 2.5% 15 years look high and deleveraging will proceed at 0% FED rates Gold likely to hold up into the recession and the rise as FED tries to reflate. I got back into Yamana gold under $2.Still holding cautious positions in the Airlines at 5 X earnings(position up 5X in three years) and a biotech uncorrelated with the market,and 10% in a long term bond fund. The US is the Great Britian of The 1929 depression and China and Brasil in USA position back then.The US will look like Japan for the last 20 years. Many shallow recessions and many false recoveries. As the FEDs wings are clipped from here on out we investors are on our own. It is the season of THE ANT