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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bill c. who wrote (8519)	12/22/1997 12:04:00 AM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 21342

<..I've read a number of reports that say the exact opposite. So who is telling the true?...> Well. if you are invested in WSTL, then you have made your bet. So we'll just have to see. <.. If the RBOC's believe cable as a threat, they will deploy ADSL...> We seem to go round in circles here, Bill. I don't think RBOC's will make this investment if they might have to give it up to CLECs in a year or so. But we are each certainly each entitled to our opinions on this. <..Will they be at 15% by the end of 1998?> Probably. Presumimg your 10% is a correct starting point, growing at projected 50%/year would put us 15% in 98. <..We really disagree on BA's marketing...> I can't see ANY RBOC filling their CO with ADSL modems, and then sending out a truck to fill a CP order, only to find that this customer is the 1 of 4 (or 2 of 5) for whom ADSL doesn't work. So we'll just agree to disagree here as well. <..This is going to take BILLIONS and many years to get to 60% coverage...> At 50% growth rate, cable will have 75% (of it's existing line #s) ready in 2002. <..The Telco's will have those area's locked up...> You may be right. Then again, the Forward Concepts study may be right. I obviously am inclined to the latter. So we agree to disagree here also. <..CLEC's don't have DLC access today. I think an Alcatel rep. made this comment...> This doesn't make sense to me - how could access to any local loop copper (run through a DLC or straight from the CO) not be available to a CLEC? If this is the case, why doesn't every RBOC just route their copper through a DLC and completely avoid the unbundling/re-bundling issue? If this were true, there would BE no need for a Supreme Court ruling. The RBOCs have already won hands down - and NOT just on the contested re-bundling issue, but on the already decided unbundling. I think you are wrong here, Bill. <..What does "add another line" mean?..> When I spoke with COX about their bandwidth guarantees, they said that most (95+%) customers got 3Mbps or greater. IF a customer gets less than a minimum of 1.5Mbps, and it's not caused by an overload of subscribers, the line likely has a problem and it is fixed (VERY rare according to COX). If it is due to an overload of users (from sharing the approx 45Mbps available to that line), they just split that area's customer base in half by running another T3 to the area from their CO. <..CAP and DMT both work with bridge taps...> It's possible that they can work - I understand it depends on the line and on the number of taps. But you still address how a DLC obviates inductance coils that are in 3-6K ft increments from the CPE to DLC. Or bad wire from CPE to DLC and in CP rat's nest of wiring. <..Bell Atlantic will have 90% coverage...> Coverage of what? <..Are you telling me an HFC plant doesn't have to worry about from the CPE to the sub-station? All the house hold cabling works... as is? ..> In all but the rarest circumstances, I was told by COX. <..they are doing it now - and doing it in the high pop urban areas and more well-to-do rural areas where the greatest bandwidth demand is...> So we'll see which scenario plays out. Forward Concepts which anticipates 1.75MM xDSL by 2002, Dataquest (arguably the king of industry research) which anticipates only around 500K near then, Telechoice with an optimistically aggresive 3.5MM by then or you in seeming to think ADSL will be more plenteous than the anticipated 7MM cable modems. You certainly could be right, Bill. I could see it happen, but it would surprise - so obviously I don't have near the confidance as you do in this. We seem to know where our disagreements are, anyway. Steve