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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (113015)	8/24/2015 11:17:33 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217907

The Fed looks set to make a dangerous mistake Lawrence Summers The writer is the Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary Raising rates this year will threaten all of the central bank’s major objectives Will the Federal Reserve’s September meeting see US interest rates go up for the first time since 2006? Officials have held out the prospect that it might, and have suggested that — barring major unforeseen developments — rates will probably be increased by the end of the year. Conditions could change, and the Fed has been careful to avoid outright commitments. But a reasonable assessment of current conditions suggest that raising rates in the near future would be a serious error that would threaten all three of the Fed’s major objectives — price stability, full employment and financial stability. Like most major central banks, the Fed has put its price stability objective into practice by adopting a 2 per cent inflation target. The biggest risk is that inflation will be lower than this — a risk that would be exacerbated by tightening policy. More than half the components of the consumer price index have declined in the past six months — the first time this has happened in more than a decade. CPI inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices and difficult-to-measure housing, is less than 1 per cent. Market-based measures of expectations suggest that, over the next 10 years, inflation will be well under 2 per cent. If the currencies of China and other emerging markets depreciate further, US inflation will be even more subdued. Tightening policy will adversely affect employment levels because higher interest rates make holding on to cash more attractive than investing it. Higher interest rates will also increase the value of the dollar, making US producers less competitive and pressuring the economies of our trading partners. This is especially troubling at a time of rising inequality. Studies of periods of tight labour markets like the late 1990s and 1960s make it clear that the best social programme for disadvantaged workers is an economy where employers are struggling to fill vacancies. There may have been a financial stability case for raising rates six or nine months ago, as low interest rates were encouraging investors to take more risks and businesses to borrow money and engage in financial engineering. At the time, I believed that the economic costs of a rate increase exceeded the financial stability benefits, but there were grounds for concern. That debate is now moot. With credit becoming more expensive, the outlook for the Chinese economy clouded at best, emerging markets submerging, the US stock market in a correction, widespread concerns about liquidity, and expected volatility having increased at a near-record rate, markets are themselves dampening any euphoria or overconfidence. The Fed does not have to do the job. At this moment of fragility, raising rates risks tipping some part of the financial system into crisis, with unpredictable and dangerous results. Why, then, do so many believe that a rate increase is necessary? I doubt that, if rates were now 4 per cent, there would be much pressure to raise them. That pressure comes from a sense that the economy has substantially normalised during six years of recovery, and so the extraordinary stimulus of zero interest rates should be withdrawn. There has been much talk of “headwinds” that require low interest rates now but this will abate before long, allowing for normal growth and normal interest rates. Whatever merit this view had a few years ago, it is much less plausible as we approach the seventh anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. It is no longer easy to think of economic conditions that can plausibly be seen as temporary headwinds. Fiscal drag is over. Banks are well capitalised. Corporations are flush with cash. Household balance sheets are substantially repaired. Much more plausible is the view that, for reasons rooted in technological and demographic change and reinforced by greater regulation of the financial sector, the global economy has difficulty generating demand for all that can be produced. This is the “secular stagnation” diagnosis, or the very similar idea that Ben Bernanke, former Fed chairman, has urged of a “savings glut”. Satisfactory growth, if it can be achieved, requires very low interest rates that historically we have only seen during economic crises. This is why long term bond markets are telling us that real interest rates are expected to be close to zero in the industrialised world over the next decade. New conditions require new policies. There is much that should be done, such as steps to promote public and private investment so as to raise the level of real interest rates consistent with full employment. Unless these new policies are implemented, inflation sharply accelerates, or euphoria in markets breaks out, there is no case for the Fed to adjust policy interest rates. The writer is the Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary

To: THE ANT who wrote (113015)	8/26/2015 6:19:39 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 217907

South Africa a Travel Bargain Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on email Share on print More Sharing Services 2 Posted by: : Shayne HeffernanPosted on: August 25, 2015 South Africa’s currency has reached its lowest level since 2001, at over 13 rands to the U.S. dollar in recent weeks. This is great news for American travelers, who will be able to take advantage of a very favorable exchange rate on a vacation of a lifetime to South Africa. Now more than ever, South Africa offers tremendous value for money and has become one of the greatest vacation values for international travel. As the predominant airline from the U.S. to South Africa, South African Airways (SAA) has developed the “ Go See Southern Africa” campaign, to emphasize the great experiences and the great value that abounds for travel to South Africa. Participating tour operators are offering very affordable packages and unique value-added programs to the destination, starting at $2,799 per person* (restrictions apply) for 14 days, flights and taxes included. SAA currently has great low fares from Washington Dulles to Johannesburg starting at $839* (restrictions apply), as well as from New York JFK starting at $879* (restrictions apply). What can travelers look forward to doing will all those extra rands? South Africa offers no shortage of refined and luxurious vacation options, including hotel and safari lodge accommodations, restaurants offering local and international cuisine, access to the Big Five wildlife and spectacular breath-taking scenery. The country’s wine regions are noted and respected around the world for producing award-winning vintages. “South Africa is the ultimate combination of nature, wildlife, culture, adventure, food and wine,” said Marc Cavaliere, Executive Vice President Americas for South African Airways. “With our special fares and the current exchange rate, travelers can afford luxury or go on a budget but either way, they will still have money left for shopping and dining!” To save American tourists money on their South African vacation, many tour operators are implemented special promotions and air-inclusive packages. One example is South African Airways Vacations, which is currently offering free car rental on its “Garden Route Splendor” self-drive package, bringing the price down to $3,399 per person (restrictions apply). After exploring stunning Cape Town and the wine region at your own pace, start driving along the False Bay coast, before ending your trip with a safari and a two-night stay at the Kichaka Game Lodge. The air-inclusive package includes 11 nights in renowned Five Star boutique hotels, as well as six lunches and six dinners. There has never been a more affordable time to see so much of South Africa. For reservations and information, customers should visit www.flysaa.com or contact South African Airways’ North America Reservations Center at 1-(800) 722-9675 , or their professional travel consultant. About South African Airways** South African Airways (SAA), South Africa’s national flag carrier and the continent’s most awarded airline, serves 67 destinations worldwide in partnership with SA Express, Airlink and its low cost carrier Mango. In North America, SAA operates daily nonstop flights from New York-JFK and direct flights from Washington D.C.-IAD (via Accra, Ghana and Dakar, Senegal) to Johannesburg. SAA has codes share agreements with United Airlines, Air Canada and JetBlue Airways, which offer convenient connections from more than 30 cities to SAA’s flights. SAA is a Star Alliance member and the recipient of the Skytrax 4-Star rating for 13 consecutive years. Terms and conditions Fares are valid for roundtrip travel and include all government and airline imposed taxes and fees. For $839 (IAD) fare, travel is permitted 11/1/15 – 11/30/15 & 2/1/16 – 2/29/16. For $879* (JFK) fare, travel is permitted 10/26/15 – 12/9/15 & 1/10/16 – 3/31/16. Minimum stay: must stay over one Sunday for fares to apply. Tickets must be purchased within 72 hours of reservation being made. Seats are limited and may not be available on all flights. Fares must be purchased by 8/31/15. Cancellations before/after departure: fares and fuel surcharge (YR/YQ/Q) are non-refundable. Date change fee: $300 + any applicable fare difference. Administrative fees may also apply. Baggage and optional service fees may apply. Reservations made 7 days or more prior to scheduled departure may be canceled without penalty up to 24 hours after the reservation is made. ** Terms and conditions Offer based per person on 2 adults sharing for departures from New York John F Kennedy (JFK) valid between August 11 – September 30, 2015 and April 01 – May 31, 2016 and also August 11 – September 30, 2016. Price is per person based on double occupancy. Valid as of August 20, 2015 for departures from New York (JFK) between August 20 – September 30, 2015 and April 01 – May 31, 2016 and also August 20 – September 30, 2016 with the same itinerary available at higher prices during other travel periods. Other departure points and domestic flights within the U.S. can be booked. Price for other departure cities and/or travel dates may vary. Subject to availability and currency exchange rate fluctuations. Prices are valid for new bookings only, are not retroactive and may change without notice. Package includes all government and airline imposed taxes and fees. Baggage and optional service fees, cancellation charges and other restrictions may apply. Free Car Rental excludes contract fee, fuel and one way drop off fee.