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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tharos who wrote (5175)	12/22/1997 7:16:00 AM
From: Robert K.	Respond to of 17367

I continue to see greater risk in korea, and asia in general. December 31st should be telling for the immediate term. I dont think koreas gonna make it, that increases the risk everywhere else. If you look at x from a mechanical perspective (generic % chance of approval) 5000 preclinical compund =1 approval 5000 preclinical= 5 into ind phase 1=20% approval phase 2=30% approval phase 3 =50% approval (all approximates therefore x has 2 in p3 (50% x2)= we should net 1 approval x has 1 in p2 +we should net .3 approval xhas 2-3 in p1 =we should net .2 approval x has 2 close to ind =we should net .1 approval est so total approvals expected to date= 1.6 approved bob