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Politics : Evolution -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TigerPaw who wrote (68449)8/30/2015 1:40:43 AM
From: Greg or e1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Brumar89

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69300
 
"If every one of the 6 billion of us resided in Texas, there would be room enough for every family of four to have a house and an 1/8th of acre of land - and the rest of the globe would be vacant. True, if population growth continues, soon some of these people would have to spill over the border into Oklahoma."

Defusing the Population Bomb
cato.org

LOL!



To: TigerPaw who wrote (68449)8/30/2015 1:44:43 AM
From: Greg or e1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Brumar89

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69300
 
The Population Bomb Defused

By Michael D. Shaw

A still popular precept of the radical Green movement is the myth, long since discredited and easily refuted, that overpopulation is both imminent and the root of the planet’s forthcoming destruction.

Those readers of a certain age will remember Stanford University professor Paul Ehrlich’s infamous 1968 book The Population Bomb, that was lapped up by so many children of the 1960’s. Funny how this generation could purport to be so idealistic, and yet fervently believe the most horrific gloom and doom scenario—all at the same time.

To appreciate the junk science Ehrlich was dishing out, check out these quotes:

“The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970’s and 1980’s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate…”

“A cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people. Treating only the symptoms of cancer may make the victim more comfortable at first, but eventually he dies—often horribly. A similar fate awaits a world with a population explosion if only the symptoms are treated. We must shift our efforts from treatment of the symptoms to the cutting out of the cancer. The operation will demand many apparently brutal and heartless decisions. The pain may be intense. But the disease is so far advanced that only with radical surgery does the patient have a chance of survival.”

Thus, it should come as no surprise that he also supported a proposal to simply stop both private and government-sponsored food aid to countries that experienced chronic food shortages, unless they controlled their populations. Otherwise, he was quite willing to let them starve.

Of course, his predictions did not come true, owing to ridiculously flawed models, as well as the emergence of high-tech agronomy. In fact, he was so wrong, and has been so beaten up about it, that his defenders have used his victim status as a hobbyhorse to attack the “Right,” as if anyone who cares about science wouldn’t have laughed this phony off the stage long ago. What famine that did occur in that era was far more about tragic corruption in Africa, than any population bomb.

At this point, then, the overpopulation card, such as it is even played anymore, is a convenient way for extremists to impose a radical agenda on government, academia, and the health care establishment.

No less an institution than the United Nations, hardly a right-wing bastion, projects that world population would peak at somewhere under 10 billion in the latter half of the 21st century and then gradually begin to decline.

The main factor driving the slowdown in the rate of population growth is the worldwide decline in total fertility rates (TFR). The total fertility rate measures the average number of children born to women during their child-bearing years. A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, whereby a population would neither grow nor decline.

TFR’s around the world have declined by 33 percent since 1985, and both United Nations and US Census Bureau projections expect them to decline further. By 2025, the US Census Bureau estimates that the TFR of the less developed countries will have fallen to 2.4, close enough to the replacement level. We will likely see a shift in where the world’s population lives. Eighty-eight percent of population growth from 1990–1995 occurred in Asia and Africa, and this seems certain to continue. By 2050, Africa’s population is expected to triple while Europe’s is expected to decline by 7 percent, even allowing for massive immigration.

Overpopulation, then, is neither a genuine threat nor an appropriate way to debate public policy. Far from being a crisis, or even something officials should seriously review, overpopulation is a tattered page from the radicals’ playbook—nothing more.



To: TigerPaw who wrote (68449)8/30/2015 2:09:00 AM
From: Greg or e1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Brumar89

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69300
 
Your post tells us a lot about the extent of your twisted thinking and the Malthusian and Eugenic delusions that you share with Margaret Sanger. That certainly explains why you are so radically Pro Abortion.

Deconstructing The Population Bomb

Author:

Pierre Desrochers

Last year marked the 40th anniversary of Paul Ehrlich's The Population Bomb, one of the two most influential environmentalist books of the 1960s with Rachel Carson's Silent Spring (1962). Ehrlich's tract is now best remembered for its inflammatory statements that "the battle to feed all of humanity is over" and that "hundreds of millions of people" were about to starve to death in spite of any large-scale attempts to boost agricultural production. To Ehrlich's supporters, he only got his timing wrong. To his critics, he misunderstood the inherent capacity of market economies to tap into creative human brains and to continually deliver innovative solutions to pressing problems.

What both Ehrlich's supporters and detractors fail to observe is how unoriginal his rhetoric was. Of course, the English clergyman and economist Thomas R. Malthus had articulated similar arguments in his "Essay on the Principle of Population" (1798), but so did many other writers in the interim period.

By a strange coincidence, The Population Bomb was published the year of the death of William Vogt (1902-1968), the man who had introduced Paul Ehrlich to the Malthusian worldview. While largely forgotten today, Vogt was the author of the Road to Survival (1948), a book that reached between 20 and 30 million individuals and was the biggest environmental best-seller of all time until the publication of Silent Spring.

Vogt belonged to a large group of individuals, many of whom had previously been active in the eugenics movement, who witnessed with horror the diffusion of new agricultural techniques, medicines, and pesticides to less advanced regions of the world. These apparently beneficial technologies, they argued, would soon result in rapid population growth, resource depletion, environmental destruction, and ultimately social collapse. To spread their message more effectively, some propagandists began to use catchwords such as "population bomb," "P-bomb" and "population explosion." This rhetoric became so widespread that it even graced the cover of Time magazine in 1960 (above).

The importance of population control activists in paving the way for modern environmentalism is now downplayed in favor of causes such as the search for better environmental amenities (clear rivers, clean air, and more green spaces), pesticide use, nuclear weapons, and the rise of ecological science. And yet, the influence of post-war "Neo-Malthusian ecologists" like Vogt cannot be underestimated.

Apocalypse…soonVogt's main thesis was expressed by the influential financier and political advisor Bernard Baruch in his foreword to Road to Survival: "Because of the great abundance of the earth's resources, we have taken them for granted. But now, over most of the globe... we are face to face with a serious depletion of 'resource capital.' More than one country is already bankrupt." In short, mankind had "backed itself into an ecological trap" while, figuratively speaking, living on "promissory notes." All over the world the notes were "falling due" and payment could not be postponed. Fortunately, there was still an option between "payment and utterly disastrous bankruptcy on a world scale," but it implied adapting to "the imperatives imposed by the limited resources of the environment."

While problems were numerous, their ultimate cause was population growth. According to Vogt, rich countries like the United States should not subsidize the "unchecked spawning" of the inhabitants of poor countries like India and China until they had adopted a rational population policy. Furthermore, a high death rate could be considered "one of the greatest national assets" of poor economies. Vogt thought pests like tsetse flies and malaria carrying mosquitoes should be thought of as "blessings in disguise" and as a "protector of important resources."

Much damage had also historically been done through the four fundamental tools of modern culture: fire, the plough, the axe and the firearm. Despite short-term benefits, each of these had resulted in "despoiled forests, erosion, wildlife extermination, overgrazing, and the dropping of water tables" and the consequent reduction of productivity in "some of the most fertile and productive regions of the earth" to levels almost comparable to those observed in the Gobi desert or the Siberian tundra. Recent technological developments only aggravated these trends.

Vogt's remedies were straightforward. He argued that if political, economic, educational, and other efforts were indispensable, they would only succeed if "population control and conservation [were] included."

ReactionsMany reviewers lavished praise on Vogt's contribution, but a few were critical. One of its most damning condemnations was penned by a Time anonymous reviewer who questioned the political implications of a Neo-Malthusian stance. After all, if even rich nations had too few resources to keep their populations passably well fed, then what should be done if not go out, conquer, and clear other lands of their populations? Hadn't Germany, a country that had managed to "stretch" the sandy acres of the Prussian plain through innovative farming practices and highly skilled industry, already gone to war twice because of the unwarranted prevalence of the "slice-of-cake [that can't be grown] philosophy" among its people? Arguing that an acre of soil is limited in terms of its productive capacity ignored the fact that humans were capable of improving it. Indeed, only individuals who had turned their back on progress could accept the notion that they would have to adapt to soil patterns for survival.

According to the Time reviewer, Vogt's outlook on human reproduction was also contradicted by the available data, especially his stance that, as long as food is available, humans would reproduce like fruit flies. To the contrary, evidence showed that richer people were having fewer children despite their access to a more abundant food supply. If Vogt's argument was valid, industrialization should have triggered an increasing birth rate. But this could only be observed in the early stages of the process, whereas a steady decrease was observed afterward. In the end, the reviewer wrote, "real scientists" could only find a few iota of truth in Vogt's "reckless appeals to emotion." This static philosophy, however, gave comfort to the type of state planner who believed that there were only so many resources available and that whatever was available needed to be strictly controlled.

Soon afterwards, the University of Delaware geographer Earl Parker Hanson published New Worlds Emerging, which he described as a rebuttal to Vogt and other "Jeremiahs of geography, sociology and economics." Denouncing the hysteria into which the modern world was "being stampeded… by the dreadful word erosion" and the resurgence of the Malthusian doctrine, Hanson had no patience for the notions that natural resources should be left conserved for future use rather than developed wisely and constantly expanded through innovative technologies, that people should be thought of as "liabilities" rather than "assets;" or that a region would be considered over-populated in terms of a population/space ratio alone without factoring in the potential benefits of economic development and innovation.

Finally, the Brazilian physician and geographer Josué de Castro's classic #1952# The Geography of Hunger also served as a rebuttal to Vogt whom he accused of merely reflecting "the mean and egotistical sentiments of people living well, terrified by the disquieting presence of those who are living badly." The world, de Castro hoped, would not let itself "be carried away by such defeatist and disintegrative conceptions" because they could only "point the way to death, to revolution and to war-the road to perdition."

An antidoteMany claims made by Vogt in his Road to Survival had already been discredited by the time Paul Ehrlich published his Population Bomb. Vogt, for example, believed that Mexico did not possess more than a third of the land required to provide its inhabitants with a reasonable diet; that its arable land was being washed into the sea; and that the country was becoming steadily poorer due to population growth. In the following years, however, significant scientific advances in plant genetics and production methods completely reversed the situation. For instance, the work of agronomist Norman Borlaug and his team on the development of semi-dwarf, high-yield and disease-resistant wheat varieties resulted in the 1963 Mexican wheat crop being six times larger than in 1944. Soon afterwards, Mexico became a wheat exporting country. A few years later this know-how was transferred to Pakistan and India where it similarly helped to diffuse the local "population bombs" and earned Borlaug the nickname of "Father of the Green Revolution."

Despite innumerable agricultural, environmental, and public health advances over the last few decades, the emotional tone and alarmist rhetoric of authors such as William Vogt and Paul Ehrlich remains pervasive among today's environmentalist writers. Some historical perspective on the history of eco-catastrophism, however, can provide a useful antidote to current doomsday rhetoric.

This essay is adapted from an essay by Pierre Desrochers and Christine Hoffbauer, "The Post War Intellectual Roots of the Population Bomb-Fairfield Osborn's Our Plundered Planet and William Vogt's Road to Survival in Retrospect." This article was published in the Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development, 2009, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 37-61 and is part of a special issue on "The Population Bomb Four Decades On."

- See more at: perc.org



To: TigerPaw who wrote (68449)8/30/2015 9:35:09 AM
From: Solon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69300
 
The ignorance of some of these people is really quite mind boggling. The world continues to cut down forests to get agricultural land. Wild life will soon be only in zoos and the world will depend on domestic harvesting to survive. This in turn requires pasture land and grain crops.

Family planning and education are the alternatives to disease, starvation, and war.

The poster who calls himself (herself?) "Greg or ee" demonstrates an ignorance that is seldom encountered in the real world--at least in the world I travel.

"I'm old enough that I won't be around when the breaking point overwhelms even North America. It is my kids that I am worried about."

Quite so. huffingtonpost.com

"Conservative estimates report that China's most recent food crisis, between 1958 and 1961, led to the starvation of over twenty million people, in part due to the erosion of China's natural capital. Uncontrolled human fertility led to a depletion of the land's fertility. Previous famines were worse. Over the years, hundreds of millions died a horrible death of hunger. Their misery should teach a sobering lesson about insouciant disregard for the balance between human numbers and natural resources.
Chinese one-child policy has been tough medicine, and implementation was clearly flawed. But it also prevented the next round of famines that would have taken far more lives had China continued to race forward and became a nation of two billion. Even so, China today still needs to bolster local food supply by attaining lands overseas.

It gives little satisfaction for sustainable population advocates to point out that the past twenty years saw an estimated 200 million hunger-related deaths worldwide. Relatively few occurred in countries where population was stable. The U.N. reports that today one in eight people in the world suffers chronic undernourishment. Almost without exception, they live in developing regions, where most of the planet's population growth continues apace. If family planning had been energetically promoted years ago, enormous suffering could have been avoided.

Present global trends will lead to a doubling of the world's urban areas by 2050. That means that cities, mostly in developing countries, will expand from 3 to 6 percent of all-ice free land. It also means that 10 to 15 percent of lands farmed today would be taken out of production. In a perfect world we would have better ways of distributing surplus food to famine stricken regions or promoting land reform to optimize food production. But for the foreseeable future we will be living in a very imperfect world where communities need to take care of themselves and maintain sustainable populations.

Overpopulation is not just about food shortages and human suffering. Ecologists explain that the collapse in global biodiversity is also linked to overpopulation. China, Mexico and Brazil have been singled out as extreme cases of species loss. Brazil's population grew four fold during the past sixty years; little wonder the Amazon is feeling the pressure. Mexico and China's growth is comparable.

Israel offers a microcosm of the global situation: A meeting point of three continents, at the middle of the twentieth century, this tiny country was still home to an astonishing assemblage of mammals, birds and reptiles. That's because in 1949 there were one million people living in Israel. Today there are eight million. The equation is simple: more people means less wildlife. Accordingly, about a third of the country's 115 indigenous mammal species today are either endangered or critically endangered. The amphibian population is almost entirely extirpated.

Israel has a remarkable program of conservation and its powerful Nature and Parks Authority set aside 25% of the country for reserves. But growing human settlement continues to fragment habitats and undermine the benefits that nature provides. These go far beyond any individual organism. When humans encroach on open spaces, they also lose the free services that nature provides: filters for clean water, protection from hurricanes, natural pollinators, soil integrity and recreational resources. The rapid rise in populations also tends to sabotage basic social services: schools are crowded, medical care overwhelmed, the legal system backed up, transportation gridlock unbearable and accessible housing inadequate. Infrastructure has a very hard keeping up with relentless growth.

Technological Pollyannas suggest that today's technologies mean that we in the West needn't be concerned. But of course we should. There are global limits that affect us all. Even Israel, whose ultra-hi-tech agriculture probably yields more "crop per drop" than any other country is only able to produce 45% of the calories required for its growing population.

The good news is that public policy matters and can reduce overpopulation. Many countries, from Bangladesh and Iran to Singapore and Thailand adopted policies that incentify small families, make birth control available, provide better social security and most of all -- empower women. The results are remarkable, showing that trend need not be destiny. As population began to stabilize, the drop in undernourished people in Asia and the Pacific went down from 23.7 percent to 13.9 percent. The quality of education, housing and health improved as a matter course.

It is time to realize that there is a tradeoff between "quality of life" and "quantity of life." In a planet with limited resources -- sustainable growth is an oxymoron. Of course humanity could all shift to vegan diets, forgo national parks and crowd in a few more billion people, hoping that new levels of efficiency will allow us to survive. But it is well to ask if this really is the kind of world that we want? There is much we can do to reduce the suffering caused by human population growth. But recognizing that overpopulation is a perilous problem constitutes a critical first step."



To: TigerPaw who wrote (68449)8/30/2015 5:24:56 PM
From: Brumar89  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 69300
 
He's right. Human population growth rates are falling all over the world. Indeed, many countries are failing to produce enough children to perpetuate their current population level. There is no human population crisis and unlikely ever to be one.