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To: Pullin-GS who wrote (28514)12/22/1997 8:58:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
Dataquest Reports ATM Access Market Is Positioned for High-Speed Growth Through 2001 Business Wire - December 22, 1997 08:22 %DATAQUEST GART %CALIFORNIA %CONNECTICUT %COMPUTERS %ELECTRONICS %COMED %TELECOMMUNICATIONS V%BW P%BW SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec 22, 1997--As carriers and enterprise users increasingly install Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) as the background protocol of choice, the worldwide ATM access concentrator equipment market will grow from $76.9 million in 1996 to $1.28 billion in 2001, according to Dataquest, a market research unit of Gartner Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:GART). The market is forecast to nearly triple in 1997 to $205.4 million and nearly double again in 1998 to $375.5 million. "1998 will be the watershed year for ATM access concentrators as ATM networks grow in size and traffic volumes begin to test product architectures," said George Hunt, director and principal analyst of Dataquest's Networking Worldwide program. "We expect interexchange carriers to choose ATM access concentrator vendors for extremely large contracts as they extend their ATM service offerings." ATM access concentrators take legacy-user traffic from PBXs, front-end processors (FEPs), LANs, and video coders/decoders (CODECs), convert the traffic into industry-standard, 53-byte ATM cells, and transport the traffic upstream to larger ATM switches for transport across an ATM backbone. ATM access concentrators have applications both in the enterprise and public markets as customer-premises equipment (CPE) devices and service-provisioning equipment located in carrier central offices. The high-speed ATM access concentrator equipment market is one of the fastest-growing market segments in wide area networking with a five-year compound annual growth rate of 58 percent. Dataquest projects the high-speed (greater than 2 Mbps) ATM access concentrator equipment market to grow from $65.2 million in 1996 to $1.06 billion in 2001. The low-speed (less than 2 Mbps) ATM access concentrator equipment market is forecast to grow from $11.7 million in 1996 to $221.2 million in 2001. Additional information about this marketplace is available in the Dataquest Perspective titled "The ATM Access Horizon Looks Bright." This Perspective reviews ATM access concentrator market drivers, the companies and products which compete in this market including strengths and weaknesses by vendor, and features required for broad market acceptance. This Perspective also provides a comprehensive five-year forecast on the market. To purchase this Perspective, or subscribe to Dataquest's Networking Worldwide program, please call 800-419-DATA. This Perspective can also be purchased via the Internet at gartner.com netwwwdq9715ab000l.html . More information about Dataquest's programs, descriptions of recent research reports, and full text of press releases can be found on the Internet at dataquest.com . Dataquest, a unit of Gartner Group, Inc., has been providing global market research and consulting services for the high-technology and financial communities for 26 years. Dataquest provides worldwide market coverage on the semiconductor, computer systems and peripherals, communications, document management, software, and services sectors of the information technology industry. As the world's leading authority on IT, GartnerGroup provides clients with a wide range of products and services in the areas of IT advisory services, measurement, research, decision support, analysis, consulting and training. Founded in 1979, with headquarters in Stamford, Conn., GartnerGroup is at the center of a global community of more than 9,000 client organizations served by analysts in 80 locations worldwide. Additional information about the company is available on the Internet at gartner.com .  CONTACT: Dataquest Tom McCall, 408/468-8312 tom.mccall@dataquest.com



To: Pullin-GS who wrote (28514)12/22/1997 1:50:00 PM
From: The Phoenix  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 61433
 
Paul,

Interesting commentary. You sound like someone who knows a bit about technology. Let me add a few more tid-bits here.

>>CIR expects the U.S. market for ATM products and services to reach >>more than $2 billion within ten years

In fact the ATM equipment market (accounting for carrier switches, ISP switches - known as "internet to those less informed", enterprise WAN switch, WAN access, and LAN ATM) was $1.962B in 1997 as reported by Vertical Systems Group. They go on to forecast the ATM equipment market at $5.663B by 2000. Dataquest projects $2.5B by the year 2000 for just WAN Switches alone (both enterprise and carrier I suspect). So, the ATM market is very healthy. Why? Read on..

>>As long as the outside LANs are frame-based Ethernet, it makes all >>the sense in the world to maintain the framing vs chopping it up >>into ATM cells. That takes CPU cycles (time) to do, and adds >>complicity to the final destination....read less reliable.

You make an excellent point here. The problem is however that there is much more besides IP traffic out there. Voice and video are becoming big drivers. Since IP frames can be very large, mixing them with short voice frames or impeding video traffic becomes problmatic. The only way to effectively carry these mixed services today is to create a predictable environement for all traffic - today this is ATM. Some vendors are working to create predictable environments over IP however most vendors will tell you this is years away.

>>As if ATM is standardized?! Mayby bastardized, but surely not >>standardized!

Another good point. The ATM Forum and the ITU could do a lot more to move ATM standards forward. However there exists a stong list to start. Standards for IP over, voice over, and mulitprotocol over ATM all exist.

>>ATM must chop it up into 48bit data "cells" add some overhead, and >>pray it all makes it's destination....because if one does'nt, the >>entire IP packet (made up of dozens of cells) must be resent. >>Furthermore standards exist for closed loop congestion management >>which, for intents and purposes, eliminates the liklihood that a >>cell will be lost requiring an IP frame to be re-sent.

If you go to:
atmforum.com
you'll also see standards for traffic management. These standards eliminate the liklihood that a cell will be losed thereby eliminating the need to retransmit ("re-send") a frame.

Paul, the point of all this is that ATM will be required in the infrastucture to support multiservice (data/voice/video) environments. It's fundamental to the discussion. It's the only fabric known today that can simultaneously support these traffic types by providing distinct QoS. No other fabric can do this today. IP RULE's the enterprise and the network edges...but when it all gets moved across the backbone - ATM will be there. For this reson as the market for IP grows so will ATM in order support the increased user load. Finally, I'll point you to all the major carriers and most ISP's... Their backbones are ATM. Those that are moving back to frame will be missing a huge opportunity for the next 5 years.

Gary