Ayatollah Khamenei Forecasts The End Of Israel
September 9, 2015Akira Watts International
Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could never be accused of moderation. In contrast with the conciliatory attitude of President Hassan Rouhani, his rhetoric epitomizes the hardline stance of the more extreme elements of Iran’s regime. So it is hardly surprising to hear, as a sidenote to his rejection of further talks with the United States, this following gem:
“I say that you (Israelis) will not see the coming 25 years and, God willing, there will not be something named the Zionist regime in next 25 years.”
Now, it is very easy to say that this latest statement is of a piece with the usual anti-Israeli rhetoric that has been emerging for Iran for years. Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad infamously threatened to “wipe Israel from the map.” (Though the incendiary nature of that phrase may have had much to do with its translation). And yes, it is undeniable that a huge amount of hostility exists between Iran and Israel. Israel is one of the few nations to object, strenuously, to the recent deal on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, in turn, has provided support to both Hamas and Hezbollah, groups that stand in opposition to the Israeli state.
But, looking beyond the Khamenei’s familiar rhetoric, he may have stumbled onto a very unfortunate truth. The fact is, the path Israel has been going down, under the far-right leadership of Binyamin Netanyahu, is increasingly unsustainable. Netanyahu’s political strategy has always been about maintaining a short term advantage, and seems never to look further than the next election. So he rages against the Iranian nuclear deal, to keep the voters in fear of Iran’s “existential threat.” He declares war on Gaza, inflicting massive civilian casualties, in order to stir up the populace into a patriotic frenzy. He wins an election by appealing to the base racism of the Israeli people. In the face of international law, he continues to construct illegal settlements in the West Bank, to maintain his tenuous coalition government in the Knesset.
All of these are actions that make some amount of sense, as long as one views them through the lens of maintaining power in the short term. Long term though? Israel’s position is seeming more and more untenable. Israel’s opposition to the deal on Iran’s nuclear program has served to further isolate an already isolated nation. It is supported in this stance by a handful of congressional Republicans, and, to a lesser extent, the Sunni gulf states. Last year’s Gaza War was a humanitarian disaster and generated massive anti-Israel sentiment. Netanyahu’s recent visit to the UK was met with massive protests, and a petition calling for his arrest for committing war crimes in Gaza has amassed over 100,000 signatures.
And Netanyahu’s intransigence on the issue of illegal West Bank settlements may be destroying even the faintest of hopes for peace in the region. Former President Jimmy Carter has accused Netanyahu of killing the two-state solution:
“’At this moment, there is zero chance of the two-state solution,’ said Jimmy Carter, giving his bleakest pronouncement yet on the Israeli-Palestinian deadlock to which he devoted much effort while President of the United States, and even more time since then. ‘These are the worst prospects for peace between Israel and the Palestinians for years,’ he said, adding that he didn’t think that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, ‘has any intention’ of making progress towards the goal, the thrust of international efforts for decades, of the creation of a separate state for the Palestinians alongside Israel.”
Every action taken by Netanyahu has brought Israel closer and closer to becoming a pariah state. And Israel simply cannot exist outside the good graces of the international community. The United States has donated some $100 billion to Israel over the years, most of it for explicitly military purposes. This aid is in no danger of drying up, at least not in the short term. No American politician would ever dare to risk being tarred as “anti-Israel.” Yet this aid becomes harder and harder to justify the further right Israel drifts, the further they isolate themselves from the rest of the world, the longer they maintain the existence of a country where so many millions are treated as second class citizens. And beyond Israel’s issues on the international front, all is not well at home. Israel stands second only to the United States as having the highest degree of income inequality in the developed world. The Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement, which has been gathering steam in recent years, could cost the Israeli economy billions. Meanwhile anti-African racism in Israel is reaching levels that rival that of the United States.
On every front, Israel is in grave trouble, and Netanyahu’s short term solutions are only making this trouble worse. Their allies are dwindling. The United States will not be able to continue to support what is, in effect, an apartheid state. Yes, Israel has found some common cause with the wealthy Sunni gulf states. (And, tellingly, like these nations, Israel has adamantly refused to take in a single refugee from the Syrian Civil War). But these few and tenuous alliance will not extract Israel from the state that Netanyahu’s regime has left it. Israel needs to fundamentally change its path, to actually do something to work towards a two-state solution, to address its growing domestic issues, to reign in its belligerence towards the rest of the region.
And if they do not? Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may turn out to be an unlikely prophet. Israel cannot survive another 25 years if it refuses to change. |
