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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearded One who wrote (12153)	12/22/1997 4:04:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Bearded one, these are excellent news, the way I read it, there is 80 to 85% chance that any recession is delayed by another year (VBG). That of course does not change my bearish opinion about the first few months next year. It will not be the first time the market managed to forecast a non existent recession. I think that by the second half of next year the goldilock scenario will return, except that the fuel will be relatively low stock prices and quite low long term interest rates. Zeev

To: Bearded One who wrote (12153)	12/22/1997 5:50:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 18056

Not that the New Zealand market has ever served as any sort of indicator, but if I am getting the Yahoo international data correctly, I think it just dropped over 3% in the opening minutes.

To: Bearded One who wrote (12153)	12/23/1997 8:09:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Respond to of 18056

Yield spread between 3 month and 10 year is now 5.7-5.47=0.23, which gives about a 20% chance of recession. Here's the whole table, taken from "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of U.S. Recessions" Arturo Estrella and Frederic S. Mishkin Recession Prob. Value of Spread 5 1.21 10 0.76 15 0.46 20 0.22 <--we're here now 25 0.02 30 -0.17 40 -0.50 50 -0.82 60 -1.13 70 -1.46 80 -1.85 90 -2.40 For a link to this article, check the message I'm responding too.