To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (56100 ) 9/26/2015 3:07:55 PM From: Paul Senior 1 RecommendationRecommended By Jurgis Bekepuris
Respond to of 78821 Deeno and Charlie Munger seem to differ about the similarities of successful horse-betting to successful stock market investing. According to Munger, where he's found successful handicappers in the pari-mutuel betting system, the guy(s) goes(go) where most bettors/information isn't available (harness racing), work it as business, and most relevant- only bet ocassionally when they are very sure of their advantage, and bet big. Ala Munger who buys just a few companies in his circle of competentence. And when he finds them he invests heavily. Not sure exactly deeno's points. Here though...Now value investing is a bit like taking the, well bread, highly trained, good jockeyed, horse that everyone knows about and then betting it to “show”. As long as not much changes in the race you have a good chance. You don’t make much, but something. When you lose however it’s a big bite that takes awhile to make up. A more winners than losers strategy. Now sometimes you look at the odds and say whoa with those odds I’m going for the win! Forgetting that these new odds are in fact likely representing something you don’t know. If you find nothing you dive in. That Doesn’t mean there wasn’t new information coming. If news doesn’t come, well better to be lucky than smart. I don't see value investors making big bets for small gains. And with a diversified portfolio a loser shouldn't be "a big bite that takes a while to make up". I guess both Deeno and Munger agree that the odds can/do change and may represent something you don't know. Doesn't seem to have adversely affected Munger/Buffett though over the decades they've made their big bets.