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To: mike iles who wrote (15352)	12/22/1997 6:41:00 PM
From: Reginald Middleton	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 24154

<the DOJ won't let MSFT illegally leverage its OS monopoly to take over the Net......> You haven't translated this to numbers, hence it does not support your argument. <(2)Java ... I don't know enough about this to present any substantive arguments> 'Nuff said. Actually, MSFT is one of the few companies actually making money on Java. <(3) the current valuation ... @ $127, MSFT is trading at 12.3X sales ... as befits the collossus of the universe. This nose-bleed valuation (is there any other large company with this kind of valuation?) doesn't allow any margin for error, for even slight disappointment ... oh, say something like the courts telling them to take IE out of Win 98 and it slips 6 months.> * Your reaching in the clouds. You can not value MSFT on a sales basis, especially if you are going to try and compare it to other companies. How do you translate the differences in margins, ratable revenue recognition and the differences in the rating/amorization schedules? Does per sales valuation take into consideration cash flow volatility, cost of capital, or any other empirical method of risk quantification? If not, don't bother to mention it. <slower growth ... I've only seen one analyst's forecast but I imagine they're all pretty similar ... doubt if MSFT lets them get out of line .. Anyway, the Robbie Stephens analyst is forecasting> How much did pay for that analyst's report. It is worth about as much as you paid for it. <.Not exactly sparkling stuff considering that the stock is trading at 48X earnings.> See "*" above. <Instead of me justifying a $75 price, maybe you should ask yourself why you own the stock right now.> I have a 63 page economic model that values MSFT in real time under 53 different scenarios. I have a very tight grasp on what the valuations on MSFT are, potential and actual. Have you made a similar effort?

To: mike iles who wrote (15352)	12/24/1997 3:12:00 AM
From: Charles Hughes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24154

>>>msft=$75 Mike, you keep posting this figure, and I keep asking about MSFT at $100 by March. We both look a lot smarter the last couple weeks, eh? But that can change. Probably, it should ;-} I propose a ships lottery for the price of MSFT. I suggest a date, March 1. Then lets have the others chime in. This is an investment forum, allegedly. If you all are so darn smart, try to beat Mike and I at this game. Pick a price, and tell us where it is supposed to be March 1. The winner gets??? Prize suggestions, please. Mike, if March 1 isn't when you believe the price will be $75 bucks, feel free to pick another price. I challenge the lot of you. Loser buys ;-) Chaz